10 Approaching Crisis

第10章 迫在眉睫

A week had passed on the Second Foundation, and the First Speaker was smiling once again upon the Student.

在第二基地上，时间又过了一个星期。今天，第一发言者再度笑容可掬地迎接那名弟子。

"You must have brought me interesting results, or you would not be so filled with anger."

“你一定发现了什么有趣的结果，否则你不会满腔怒火。”

The Student put his hand upon the sheaf of calculating paper he had brought with him and said, "Are you sure that the problem is a factual one?"

弟子一手按着他带来的那束计算纸，说道：“您确定这个问题是个真实案例吗？”

"The premises are true. I have distorted nothing."

“前提千真万确，我一点也没有改动。”

"Then I must accept the results, and I do not want to."

“那么我不得不接受计算的结果，可是我又不愿意。”

"Naturally. But what have your wants to do with it? Well, tell me what disturbs you so. No, no, put your derivations to one side. I will subject them to analysis afterward. Meanwhile, talk to me. Let me judge your understanding."

“自然如此。但是你愿不愿意又有什么关系呢？好吧，告诉我，你究竟在担心什么。不，不，把推导过程放在一边，我等一下再来分析。现在，用你自己的话告诉我。让我来判断你的了解程度。”

"Well, then, Speaker?It becomes very apparent that a gross overall change in the basic psychology of the First Foundation has taken place. As long as they knew of the existence of a Seldon Plan, without knowing any of the details thereof, they were confident but uncertain. They knew they would succeed, but they didn't know when or how. There was, therefore, a continuous atmosphere of tension and strain……"which was what Seldon desired. The First Foundation, in other words, could be counted upon to work at maximum potential."

“嗯，好吧，发言者……结论似乎非常明显，第一基地的基本心理状态，曾经发生整体性的改变。如果他们仅仅知晓谢顿计划的存在，而不了解其中任何细节，他们会一直抱持不太确定的信心。他们知道自己终将成功，却不知道如何以及何时才能达成目标。因此，就会形成连续不断的紧张气氛……这正是谢顿所预期的。换句话说，如此即可指望第一基地发挥最大的潜能。”

"A doubtful metaphor," said the First Speaker, "but I understand you."

“这是个含糊的比喻，”第一发言者说，“但我了解你的意思。”

"But now, Speaker, they know of the existence of a Second Foundation in what amounts to detail, rather merely than as an ancient and vague statement of Seldon's. They have an inkling as to its function as the guardian of the Plan. They know that an agency exists which watches their every step and will not let them fall. So they abandon their purposeful stride and allow themselves to be carried upon a litter. Another metaphor, I'm afraid."

“发言者，可是如今，他们知晓了第二基地的存在；除了谢顿当年那句晦涩的描述，他们还获悉了许多细节。他们模糊地感觉到，第二基地的功能就是守护谢顿计划。他们知道这个组织正在监视他们每一步的进展，不会坐视他们失败。所以他们放弃了主动的步伐，等着我们用担架来抬他们。不好意思，这又是一个比喻。”

"Nevertheless, go on."

“没关系，继续说。”

"And that very abandonment of effort; that growing inertia; that lapse into softness and into a decadent and hedonistic culture, means the ruin of the Plan. They must be self-propelled."

“他们放弃了努力；他们养成了惰性；他们变得软弱颓废，兴起了享乐主义的文化……在在表示谢顿计划就要毁了。他们非得自我鞭策不可。”

"Is that all?"

“你说完了吗？”

"No, there is more. The majority reaction is as described. But a great probability exists for a minority reaction. Knowledge of our guardianship and our control will rouse among a few, not complacence, but hostility. This follows from Korillov's Theorem……"

“不，还没有。上面所说的是大多数人的反应。可是还有一种少数反应，对应的几率也非常高。当我们这个守护者和控制者的角色曝光后，会有少数人非但不满足，反而对我们产生敌意。这是根据勾里洛夫定理……”

"Yes, yes. I know the theorem."

“没错，没错。我知道那个定理。”

"I'm sorry, Speaker. It is difficult to avoid mathematics. In any case, the effect is that not only is the Foundation's effort diluted, but part of it is turned against us, actively against us."

“发言者，很抱歉，想要避免数学的确很困难。总之，我们曝光之后，第一基地除了不再积极之外，还会有部分人士打算对付我们，而且是主动对付我们。”

"And is that all?"

“现在你说完了吗？”

"There remains one other factor of which the probability is moderately low--……"

“还有另外一项因素，对应的几率并不算高……”

"Very good. What is that?"

“非常好。那又是什么？”

"While the energies of the First Foundation were directed only to Empire; while their only enemies were huge and outmoded hulks that remained from the shambles of the past, they were obviously concerned only with the physical sciences. With us forming a new, large part of their environment, a change in view may well be imposed on them. They may try to become psychologists……"

“当第一基地以全副心力对抗帝国时，面对的敌人只是一个又一个被时代淘汰的庞大残躯，那时他们显然只专注于物理科学的发展。可是我们出现后，对他们形成一个崭新而重大的影响，很可能会造成他们观念上的改变。他们或许会开始培养心理学家……”

"That change," said the First Speaker, coolly, "has already taken place."

“那种改变，”第一发言者淡淡地说，“其实已经发生了。”

The Student's lips compressed themselves into a pale line. "Then all is over. It is the basic incompatibility with the Plan. Speaker, would I have known of this if I had lived……"outside?"

弟子紧抿嘴唇，形成一条苍白的直线。“那就全完了。这个结果和谢顿计划绝不相容。发言者，倘若我是……局外人，有可能知道这个事实吗？”

The First Speaker spoke seriously, "You feel humiliated, my young man, because, thinking you understood so much so well, you suddenly find that many very apparent things were unknown to you. Thinking you were one of the Lords of the Galaxy; you suddenly find that you stand near to destruction. Naturally, you will resent the ivory tower in which you lived; the seclusion in which you were educated; the theories on which you were reared.

第一发言者严肃地说：“年轻人，你感到了羞辱吧，因为你原本以为已经了解整个局势，却忽然发现有许多非常明显的事你并不知道。你本来以为自己是银河的主宰，却忽然发觉自己面临毁灭的命运。自然，你会怨恨那座栖身的象牙塔、那种隐遁式的教育，以及你吸收的各种理论。

"I once had that feeling. It is normal. Yet it was necessary that in your formative years you have no direct contact with the Galaxy, that you remain here, where all knowledge is filtered to you, and your mind carefully sharpened. We could have shown you this……this part-failure of the Plan earlier and spared you the shock now, but you would not have understood the significance properly, as you now will. Then you find no solution at all to the problem?"

“我也曾经有过那种情绪，这是很正常的。然而在你的养成期，确有必要不让你和银河直接接触；确有必要让你留在此地，接受一切经过过滤的知识，把心灵训练得敏锐无比。我们可以早些将这个计划中的……局部失败透露给你，以免你如今受到震撼。可是那样一来，你将无法像现在这样，真正了解问题的严重性。所以说，你发现这个问题根本无解？”

The Student shook his head and said hopelessly, "None!"

弟子猛摇着头，以绝望的口气说：“是的！”

"Well, it is not surprising. Listen to me, young man. A course of action exists and has been followed for over a decade. It is not a usual course, but one that we have been forced into against our will. It involves low probabilities, dangerous assumptions?We have even been forced to deal with individual reactions at times, because that was the only possible way, and you know that Psychostatistics by its very nature has no meaning when applied to less than planetary numbers."

“好，我并不感到惊讶。年轻人，听我说。办法是有的，而且已经用了超过十年。这不是一条普通的行动路线，而是我们被迫不得不这么做。它对应的几率甚低，并且牵涉到危险的假设……有些时候，我们甚至被迫去处理个体反应，只因为那是唯一的办法。你也知道，用心理统计学处理小于一颗行星的人口，根本上已失去了意义。”

"Are we succeeding?" gasped the Student.

“我们成功了吗？”弟子喘着气问。

"There's no way of telling yet. We have kept the situation stable so far……"but for the first time in the history of the Plan, it is possible for the unexpected actions of a single individual to destroy it. We have adjusted a minimum number of outsiders to a needful state of mind; we have our agents……"but their paths are planned. They dare not improvise. That should be obvious to you. And I will not conceal the worst……"if we are discovered, here, on this world, it will not only be the Plan that is destroyed, but ourselves, our physical selves. So you see, our solution is not very good."

“现在还看不出来。目前我们将情况控制得还算稳定……可是，某个普通个体产生的无从预料的行为，就有可能毁掉整个谢顿计划；自计划开展以来，还是头一次出现这种状况。我们选取了最少数的外人，调整他们的心灵状态；我们也有自己的间谍……不过他们一律依计行事，从来不敢随机应变。你应该很明白如今的处境。我不打算对你隐瞒最坏的情况……万一我们被发现了，我是说这里，这个世界，那么被摧毁的将不只是谢顿计划，我们自己，我们的血肉之躯也会陪葬。所以你看，我们的解决之道并不太理想。”

"But the little you have described does not sound like a solution at all, but like a desperate guess."

“可是您刚才提到的那一点点，听来并不像解决之道，反倒像是绝望的猜测。”

"No. Let us say, an intelligent guess."

“不对。应该说，是一个明智的猜测。”

"When is the crisis, Speaker? When will we know whether we have succeeded or not?"

“发言者，请问危机何时来临？我们何时会知道是否成功了？”

"Well within the year, no doubt."

“毫无疑问，不会超过一年。”

The Student considered that, then nodded his head. He shook hands with the Speaker. "Well, it's good to know."

弟子思考了一会儿，然后点点头，并与发言者握了握手。“嗯，我很高兴能知道这些。”

He turned on his heel and left.

说完他就转身离去。

The first Speaker looked out silently as the window gained transparency. Past the giant structures to the quite, crowding stars.

当玻璃窗渐渐变成透明时，第一发言者默默向外望去。他的视线越过许多巨大的建筑物，一直投射到寂静而拥挤的星空。

A year would pass quickly. Would any of them, any of Seldon's heritage, be alive at its end?

一年的时间很快会过去。到了那个时候，他们这些“谢顿的选民”是否还有任何人活着呢？