8 Seldon's Plan
8 谢顿计划
MATHEMATICS The synthesis of the calculus of n-variables and of n-dimensional geometry is the basis of what Seldon once called "my little algebra of humanity"....
数学：……多变数与多维几何的综合分析运算，构成了谢顿昵称为“我研究人类的小小工具”之基础……
ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA
……《银河百科全书》
Consider a room!
请想象一个房间！
The location of the room is not in question at the moment. It is merely sufficient to say that in that room, more than anywhere, the Second Foundation existed.
目前，房间的位置并不重要，只需要强调这个房间最适合被称为第二基地。
It was a room which, through the centuries, had been the abode of pure science……yet it had none of the gadgets with which, through millennia of association, science has come to be considered equivalent. It was a science, instead, which dealt with mathematical concepts only, in a manner similar to the speculation of ancient, ancient races in the primitive, prehistoric days before technology had come to be; before Man had spread beyond a single, now-unknown world.
几世纪以来，这个房间一直保存着一门纯粹的科学——然而，一向被联想成“科学”的各种装置、设备、仪器等等，这里通通见不到。因为这门科学的研究对象，只是数学概念而已。在科技尚未萌芽的史前原始时代，当人类集中于一个如今已经失落的世界时，先民中的智者所进行的冥想，便与这门科学有些神似。
For one thing, there was in that room……protected by a mental science as yet unassailable by the combined physical might of the rest of the Galaxy……the Prime Radiant, which held in its vitals the Seldon Plan……complete.
在这个受到精神科学力量保护的房间中（至今，整个银河系一切有形力量加在一起，仍旧无法与这门精神科学相抗衡），有一个较为显眼的物件——元光体，内部珍藏着谢顿计划的完整内容。
For another, there was a man, too, in that room……The First Speaker.
此外，室内还有一个人——第一发言者。
He was the twelfth in the line of chief guardians of the Plan, and his title bore no deeper significance than the fact that at the gatherings of the leaders of the Second Foundation, he spoke first.
他是谢顿计划的第十二任首席监护者，而他所拥有的头衔，代表的就是字面上的意义——在第二基地领导者集会的场合，他是首先发言的一位。
His predecessor had beaten the Mule, but the wreckage of that gigantic struggle still littered the path of the Plan?For twenty-five years, he, and his administration, had been trying to force a Galaxy of stubborn and stupid human beings back to the path?It was a terrible task.
他的前任曾经击败骡，但是那场大规模对抗所留下的后遗症，依旧扰乱着谢顿计划的前途——过去二十五年来，他与他所领导的组织，致力将全银河系顽固、愚昧的人类重新纳入正轨——这是一项艰巨至极的工作。
The First Speaker looked up at the opening door. Even while, in the loneliness of the room, he considered his quarter century of effort, which now so slowly and inevitably approached its climax; even while he had been so engaged, his mind had been considering the newcomer with a gentle expectation. A youth, a student, one of those who might take over, eventually.
第一发言者抬起头来，望着正在打开的门。在这个孤寂的房间中，他回顾着自己四分之一世纪的努力，如今一切终将爬上最高峰。虽然此刻他是那么专注，仍有余裕以安然的心情期待着来人。他是一名年轻弟子，将来，他们之中总有一位会继承他的职位。
The young man stood uncertainly at the door, so that the First Speaker had to walk to him and lead him in, with a friendly hand upon the shoulder.
由于年轻人正不知所措地站在门口，第一发言者必须向他走过去，将他领进室内，并且伸出一只手，亲切地按在他的肩头。
The Student smiled shyly, and the First Speaker responded by saying, "First, I must tell you why you are here."
弟子露出羞赧的微笑，第一发言者则说：“首先，我必须告诉你为何请你过来。”
They faced each other now, across the desk. Neither was speaking in any way that could be recognized as such by any man in the Galaxy who was not himself a member of the Second Foundation.
他们现在隔着书桌面对面坐着，两人都没有真正开口说话。除非是第二基地的成员，银河中再也没有人了解他们所使用的沟通方式。
Speech, originally, was the device whereby Man learned, imperfectly, to transmit the thoughts and emotions of his mind. By setting up arbitrary sounds and combinations of sounds to represent certain mental nuances, be developed a method of communication……but one which in its clumsiness and thick-thumbed inadequacy degenerated all the delicacy of the mind into gross and guttural signaling.
语言本是人类用来表达思想与情感的方式，它并非与生俱来，也不是完美无缺。人类所建立的语言沟通模式，只是利用声音的组合来表示各种精神状态——可是这种方法极为笨拙，而且能力明显不足，只能将心灵中细腻的思想，转换成发声器官所发出的迟钝声音。
Down?down?the results can be followed; and all the suffering that humanity ever knew can be traced to the one fact that no man in the history of the Galaxy, until Hari Seldon, and very few men thereafter, could really understand one another. Every human being lived behind an impenetrable wall of choking mist within which no other but he existed. Occasionally there were the dim signals from deep within the cavern in which another man was located-so that each might grope toward the other. Yet because they did not know one another, and could not understand one another, and dared not trust one another, and felt from infancy the terrors and insecurity of that ultimate isolation……there was the hunted fear of man for man, the savage rapacity of man toward man.
追根究底——追本溯源——其实不难发现：人类所蒙受的一切苦难，皆可追溯到一个事实，亦即在银河历史上，几乎没有任何人能了解他人的心思；或许只有哈里·谢顿，以及其后的极少数人例外。人人将自己隐藏在他人无法穿透的迷雾中，每团迷雾里也就只有一个人。偶尔，从某团迷雾深处会透出一丝微弱模糊的讯号——人类便是借着这些讯号互相摸索。然而，由于相互间无法了解，彼此也就不能互信互谅，所以每个人自幼年时代起，始终处于绝对孤寂的状态，时时刻刻感到恐惧与不安。长此以往，便导致了人与人之间的猜忌与迫害。
Feet, for tens of thousands of years, had clogged and shuffled in the mud……and held down the minds which, for an equal time, had been fit for the companionship of the stars.
数万年来，人类的双脚在泥泞中蹒跚前进，心灵长期受到压制。倘若善加利用这些时间，心灵早就可以飞向星际。
Grimly, Man had instinctively sought to circumvent the prison bars of ordinary speech. Semantics, symbolic logic, psychoanalysis……they had all been devices whereby speech could either be refined or by-passed.
过去，人类本能地努力寻找打破语言桎梏的方法。语意学、符号逻辑、精神分析……这些学问都是在研究如何精炼语言，甚至完全舍弃之。
Psychohistory had been the development of mental science, the final mathematicization thereof, rather, which had finally succeeded. Through the development of the mathematics necessary to understand the facts of neural physiology and the electrochemistry of the nervous system, which themselves had to be, had to be, traced down to nuclear forces, it first became possible to truly develop psychology. And through the generalization of psychological knowledge from the individual to the group, sociology was also mathematicized.
心理史学是精神科学的一项重要发展方向；经过许多世代的努力，精神科学的数学化终于大功告成。为了了解神经生理学与神经系统的电化学——这必须一直钻研到核力的领域——相关的数学有了长足的进展。利用这些最新发展的数学，心理学总算成为一门真正的科学。而将心理学的知识从个体推广到群体，社会学的数学化过程也于焉完成。
The larger groups; the billions that occupied planets; the trillions that occupied Sectors; the quadrillions that occupied the whole Galaxy, became, not simply human beings, but gigantic forces amenable to statistical treatment……so that to Hari Seldon, the future became clear and inevitable, and the Plan could be set up.
较庞大的人类群体，例如一颗行星上的数十亿人，一个星区中的数兆居民，乃至整个银河系的千兆人口，则不仅是众多人类的集合，更是能以统计方法处理的社会力量。因此对哈里·谢顿而言，未来的发展是必然的，是清晰可见的，而预设的计划则是绝对可行的。
The same basic developments of mental science that had brought about the development of the Seldon Plan, thus made it also unnecessary for the First Speaker to use words in addressing the Student.
导致谢顿计划发展的精神科学基础，同时使得第二基地得以超越语言。因此当第一发言者与弟子沟通时，他完全不需要开口说话。
Every reaction to a stimulus, however slight, was completely indicative of all the trifling changes, of all the flickering currents that went on in another's mind. The First Speaker could not sense the emotional content of the Student's instinctively, as the Mule would have been able to do……since the Mule was a mutant with powers not ever likely to become completely comprehensible to any ordinary man, even a Second Foundationer……rather he deduced them, as the result of intensive training.
人类心灵对某个刺激的种种反应，不论引起的生物电流多么微弱，都能完整显示心中所有的细微变化，以及所有的思想涓流。因此，第一发言者能够直接感知弟子的情感内容。不过他的能力是长久训练的成果，并非像骡那样生来便有这种感应力——骡是独一无二的突变种，甚至第二基地分子也无法完全了解他的异能，普通人就更不用说了。
Since, however, it is inherently impossible in a society based on speech to indicate truly the method of communication of Second Foundationers among themselves, the whole matter will be hereafter ignored. The First Speaker will be represented as speaking in ordinary fashion, and if the translation is not always entirely valid, it is at least the best that can be done under the circumstances.
然而，在一个必须靠语言沟通的社会里，仅仅使用普通的文字，绝不可能表达出第二基地分子彼此沟通的方式。因此从现在开始，我们只好以普通的言语来表现第一发言者的讯息。即使这项“翻译”偶有失真之处，也是不得已的情况下最好的办法了。
It will be pretended therefore, that the First Speaker did actually say, "First, I must tell you why you are here," instead of smiling just so and lifting a finger exactly thus.
从现在起，我们姑且认为第一发言者的确在说：“首先，我必须告诉你为何请你过来。”而不再描述那是一个微笑、一个手部动作所代表的讯息。
The First Speaker said, "You have studied mental science hard and well for most of your life. You have absorbed all your teachers could give you. It is time for you and a few others like yourself to begin your apprenticeship for Speakerhood."
接着，第一发言者又说：“你从小到大都在努力钻研精神科学，而且成绩优秀。师长们能教你的，你已经全部吸收了。如今，你和其他几位同学，都可以成为见习发言者了。”
Agitation from the other side of the desk.
书桌对面传来一阵兴奋的情绪。
"No……now you must take this phlegmatically. You had hoped you would qualify. You had feared you would not. Actually, both hope and fear are weaknesses. You knew you would qualify and you hesitate to admit the fact because such knowledge might stamp you as cocksure and therefore unfit. Nonsense! The most hopelessly stupid man is he who is not aware that he is wise. It is part of your qualification that you knew you would qualify."
“不——你必须冷静地接受这个任命。你一直希望有资格入选，一直担心自己落榜。事实上，无论希望或担心都是你的弱点。你明明知道自己够资格，却又不敢承认，生怕给人留下过分自信因而不适任的印象。真是荒谬！最无可救药的笨蛋，就是聪明却不自知的人。你知道自己够资格，正是你够资格的原因之一。”
Relaxation on the other side of the desk.
坐在书桌对面的弟子松了一口气。
"Exactly. Now you feel better and your guard is down. You are fitter to concentrate and fitter to understand. Remember, to be truly effective, it is not necessary to hold the mind under a tight, controlling barrier which to the intelligent probe is as informative as a naked mentality. Rather, one should cultivate an innocence, an awareness of self, and an unself-consciousness of self which leaves one nothing to hide. My mind is open to you. Let this be so for both of us."
“很好。现在你的心情轻松许多，警戒也放松了。这样你才有办法集中精神，才能了解我要对你说的话。记住，想要真正发挥精神力量，并不需要将心灵绷得紧紧、抓得死死的。对于探测器而言，那无异于一种空洞的精神状态。反之，你应当培养一种单纯的心境，一种自我的觉察，一种无我的意识，如此任何情绪才能无所遁形。我的心灵已经对你敞开，让我们彼此都达到这种境界。”
He went on. "It is not an easy thing to be a Speaker. It is not an easy thing to be a Psychohistorian in the first place; and not even the best Psychohistorian need necessarily qualify to be a Speaker. There is a distinction here. A Speaker must not only be aware of the mathematical intricacies of the Seldon Plan; he must have a sympathy for it and for its ends. He must love the Plan; to him it must be life and breath. More than that it must even be as a living friend.
他又继续说：“当一名发言者并不容易。其实，心理史学家本身就不是个简单的职务，而即使是最优秀的心理史学家，也不一定有资格担任发言者。这两者是有区别的。发言者不仅要知晓谢顿计划的复杂数学结构，还必须认同这个计划及其最终目标。他一定要热爱这个计划，将计划视为自己的生命。除此之外，还得把它当成活生生的好朋友。
"Do you know what this is?"
“你知道这是什么吗？”
The First Speaker's hand hovered gently over the black, shining cube in the middle of the desk. It was featureless.
第一发言者将手摆在书桌中央一个闪亮的黑色立方体正上方。那是一个毫不起眼的物件。
"No, Speaker, I do not."
“发言者，我不知道。”
"You have heard of the Prime Radiant?"
“你听说过元光体吗？”
"This?" 朅stonishment.
“这就是吗？”声音中充满惊讶。
"You expected something more noble and awe-inspiring? Well, that is natural. It was created in the days of the Empire, by men of Seldon's time. For nearly four hundred years, it has served our needs perfectly, without requiring repairs or adjustment. And fortunately so, since none of the Second Foundation is qualified to handle it in any technical fashion." He smiled gently. "Those of the First Foundation might be able to duplicate this, but they must never know, of course."
“你以为它看起来应该更高贵、更令人敬畏？嗯，这也难怪。它是帝国时期的产物，由谢顿时代的工匠制成。将近四百年来，它的表现都极为完美，从来不需要修理或调整。这算是我们的运气，因为就技术层面而言，第二基地没有任何人懂得它的构造和原理。”他淡淡一笑，“第一基地的人也许有办法复制一个，不过，当然绝不能让他们知道。”
He depressed a lever on his side of the desk and the room was in darkness. But only for a moment, since with a gradually livening flush, the two long walls of the room glowed to life. First, a pearly white, unrelieved, then a trace of faint darkness here and there, and finally, the fine neatly printed equations in black, with an occasional red hairline that wavered through the darker forest like a staggering rillet.
他压下书桌旁的一根操纵杆，室内立时陷入一片黑暗。但片刻之后，两侧的大幅墙壁便逐渐亮起来。开始的时候是珍珠般的白色光芒，随后各处又出现模糊的暗影，最后暗影凝聚成清晰整齐的黑色字体。那些字体构成无数的数学方程式，其间穿插着许多蜿蜒的红色线条，仿佛幽暗森林中的血色河流。
"Come, my boy, step here before the wall. You will not cast a shadow. This light does not radiate from the Radiant in an ordinary manner. To tell you the truth, I do not know even faintly by what medium this effect is produced, but you will not cast a shadow. I know that."
“过来，孩子，站到墙壁前面。放心，你不会形成阴影。元光体辐射光线的方式非常特殊。老实告诉你，我丝毫不了解这种效应的原理。但我可以肯定，你的影子不会出现在墙壁上。”
They stood together in the light. Each wall was thirty feet long, and ten high. The writing was small and covered every inch.
他们一起站在光芒中。那两面墙都是十英尺高、三十英尺宽。墙上布满密密麻麻的小字，连一英寸空隙也没有。
"This is not the whole Plan," said the First Speaker. "To get it all upon both walls, the individual equations would have to be reduced to microscopic size……but that is not necessary. What you now see represents the main portions of the Plan till now. You have learned about this, have you not?"
“这还不是整个的谢顿计划，”第一发言者说，“要把整个计划写在两面墙上，方程式必须缩小到微观的尺度——可是没有这个必要。你现在看到的，代表至今为止谢顿计划的主要部分。这些你都学过了，对不对？”
"Yes, Speaker, I have."
“是的，发言者，我都学过了。”
"Do you recognize any portion."
“你认得出任何一部分吗？”
A slow silence. The student pointed a finger and as he did so, the line of equations marched down the wall, until the single series of functions he had thought of……one could scarcely consider the quick, generalized gesture of the finger to have been sufficiently precise……was at eye-level.
短暂的沉默后，弟子举起手来。当他的手指指向墙壁时，一列方程式随即向下移动，直到他心中所想的那个函数级数挪到眼前——真难想象，只是不经意地迅速指了一下，竟然造成这么精密的结果。
The First Speaker laughed softly, "You will find the Prime Radiant to be attuned to your mind. You may expect more surprises from the little gadget. What were you about to say about the equation you have chosen?"
第一发言者轻声笑了笑。“你将发现元光体能和你的心灵调谐。今后，这个小装置还会给你更多的惊奇。对于你选取的方程式，你有什么心得？”
"It," faltered the Student, "is a Rigellian integral, using a planetary distribution of a bias indicating the presence of two chief economic classes on the planet, or maybe a Sector, plus an unstable emotional pattern."
“这是瑞格积分，”弟子支吾地说，“利用整个行星的心理倾向分布，来表现行星上甚至整个星区所存在的两种主要经济阶级，以及不稳定的情感模式。”
"And what does it signify?"
“它有什么意义呢？”
"It represents the limit of tension, since we have here"……he pointed, and again the equations veered……"a converging series."
“它代表张力的极限，因为在这里，”弟子伸手一指，许多方程式随即同时挪移，“有一个收敛级数。”
"Good," said the First Speaker. "And tell me, what do you think of all this. A finished work of art, is it not?"
“很好。”第一发言者说，“现在告诉我，你对这个结果有何感想。一个完美的杰作，对不对？”
"Definitely!"
“绝对是的！”
"Wrong! It is not." This, with sharpness. "It is the first lesson you must unlearn. The Seldon Plan is neither complete nor correct. Instead, it is merely the best that could be done at the time. Over a dozen generations of men have pored over these equations, worked at them, taken them apart to the last decimal place, and put them together again. They've done more than that. They've watched nearly four hundred years pass and against the predictions and equations, they've checked reality, and they have learned.
“错了！并非如此。”第一发言者的语气异常严厉，“这是你必须纠正的第一个观念。谢顿计划并非百分之百完整和正确。反之，它只是如今所能做到的最佳结果。已经有十几代的先人，在这上面花了无数心血；研究这些方程式，将它们拆解到细微末节，然后重新组合起来。除此之外，他们还静观近四百年的历史发展，以便与方程式的预测相互对照；他们检查方程式的真实性，从中学到许多新的知识。
"They have learned more than Seldon ever knew, and if with the accumulated knowledge of the centuries we could repeat Seldon's work, we could do a better job. Is that perfectly clear to you?"
“他们学到不少连谢顿都不知道的事。几世纪以来所累积的知识，不但能让我们重新导出谢顿的结果，甚至可以比他做得更好。这一点，你是否完全明白？”
The Student appeared a little shocked.
弟子显得有点愕然。
"Before you obtain your Speakerhood," continued the First Speaker, "you yourself will have to make an original contribution to the Plan. It is not such great blasphemy. Every red mark you see on the wall is the contribution of a man among us who lived since Seldon. Why ... why? He looked upward, "There!"
“在你获得发言权之前，”第一发言者继续说，“你自己必须对谢顿计划作出原创性的贡献。请注意，这并非对谢顿的亵渎。墙壁上每一个红色记号，都代表谢顿之后的发言者所作的修正或补充。嗯……嗯……”他抬头向上看，“在那里！”
The whole wall seemed to whirl down upon him.
整个墙壁似乎向他当头罩下来。
"This," he said, "is mine." A fine red line encircled two forking arrows and included six square feet of deductions along each path. Between the two were a series of equations in red.
“这一块，”他说，“就是我的成绩。”那是被红线圈住的两个分歧箭头，箭头旁边各有六平方英尺的数学推导。两者之间则是一大串红色的方程式。
"It does not," said the Speaker, "seem to be much. It is at a point in the Plan which we will not reach yet for a time as long as that which has already passed. It is at the period of coalescence, when the Second Empire that is to be is in the grip of rival personalities who will threaten to pull it apart if the fight is too even, or clamp it into rigidity, if the fight is too uneven. Both possibilities are considered here, followed, and the method of avoiding either indicated.
“它描述的是遥远的未来，看起来似乎没什么了不起。”第一发言者又说，“虽然谢顿计划已经进行了许多年，可是即使将时间再延长一倍，这个情况依然尚未出现。那是一个合并期，此时第二帝国业已形成，却掌握在两个敌对团体手中。假如两者势均力敌，便可能使帝国分裂；若是势力太过悬殊，占上风的一方又会钳制得太紧。在此两种可能性都考虑到了，并且详加演绎，也指出了避免两者的方法。
"Yet it is all a matter of probabilities and a third course can exist. It is one of comparatively low likelihood……twelve point six four percent, to be exact……but even smaller chances have already come to pass and the Plan is only forty percent complete. This third probability consists of a possible compromise between two or more of the conflicting personalities being considered. This, I showed, would first freeze the Second Empire into an unprofitable mold, and then, eventually, inflict more damage through civil wars than would have taken place had a compromise never been made in the first place. Fortunately, that could be prevented, too. And that was my contribution."
“但这是一个几率问题，因此还会有第三种可能的结果。这个结果的可能性相当小——准确的数值是12.64%——可是纵使几率更小的事件，过去也曾经真正发生过，而谢顿计划目前只完成40%而已。这第三种可能，是两个或更多的敌对势力达成妥协。根据我的推导，这个结果会导致第二帝国陷入无效益的模式，最后终将引发内战。相较于毫无妥协之下的内战，这种内战将对帝国造成更大的伤害。幸好，这也是可以避免的。而这就是我个人的贡献。”
"If I may interrupt, Speaker?How is a change made?"
“发言者，请允许我打个岔——修正要如何进行呢？”
"Through the agency of the Radiant. You will find in your own case, for instance, that your mathematics will be checked rigorously by five different boards; and that you will be required to defend it against a concerted and merciless attack. Two years will then pass, and your development will be reviewed again. It has happened more than once that a seemingly perfect piece of work has uncovered its fallacies only after an induction period of months or years. Sometimes, the contributor himself discovers the flaw.
“借着元光体来进行。比如说，拿你自己当例子，你的数学推导将由五个评议会严格审查；在口试中，他们会对你提出一致的、无情的抨击，而你必须一一解释。两年后，你的成果将再次接受审核。曾经不只一次，一个似乎完美无暇的理论，经过数个月乃至数年的试用期，其中的破绽才被人发现。有些时候，还是发明者自己发现的。
"If, after two years, another examination, not less detailed than the first, still passes it, and……better still……if in the interim the young scientist has brought to light additional details, subsidiary evidence, the contribution will be added to the Plan. It was the climax of my career; it will be the climax of yours.
“两年后的第二次口试，绝不会比第一次更简单。假使你能顺利通过第二次口试，你的结果便会成为谢顿计划的一部分——在这期间，你若能发现更多的细节，或更多的辅助证据，那就更加理想了。那是我一生中最高的成就，将来你也会拥有这份光荣。
"The Prime Radiant can be adjusted to your mind, and all corrections and additions can be made through mental rapport. There will be nothing to indicate that the correction or addition is yours. In all the history of the Plan there has been no personalization. It is rather a creation of all of us together. Do you understand?"
“元光体可以调节到契合你的心灵，所有的修正和补充都能透过精神融合进行。你所做的修正或补充，不会在任何地方留下你的名字。在谢顿计划的历史中，个人始终不存在。它算是我们集体的成果，你了解吗？”
"Yes, Speaker!"
“发言者，我了解！”
"Then, enough of that." A stride to the Prime Radiant, and the walls were blank again save for the ordinary room-lighting region along the upper borders. "Sit down here at my desk, and let me talk to you. It is enough for a Psychohistorian, as such, to know his Biostatistics and his Neurochemical Electromathematics. Some know nothing else and are fit only to be statistical technicians. But a Speaker must be able to discuss the Plan without mathematics. If not the Plan itself, at least its philosophy and its aims.
“好，这方面谈得够多了。”他大步走到元光体前，墙壁上的显像瞬间消失无踪，只剩下顶端射出的室内照明光芒。“坐到我的书桌旁边，让我再和你说几句话。对一位心理史学家而言，懂得‘生物统计’和‘神经化电数学’就足够了。有些心理史学家只精通这两门学问，因此只适合担任一名统计技师。可是身为发言者，却要能够舍弃数学，改用普通语言讨论谢顿计划。即使不能畅谈计划的内容，至少要能讨论它的哲学意义和种种目的。
"First of all, what is the aim of the Plan? Please tell me in your own words……and don't grope for fine sentiment. You won't be judged on polish and suavity, I assure you."
“首先我想问你，谢顿计划的目的是什么？请用你自己的话回答我——不要咬文嚼字。我向你保证，你的辞藻和语气都不在评分范围内。”
It was the Student's first chance at more than a bisyllable, and he hesitated before plunging into the expectant space cleared away for him. He said, diffidently: "As a result of what I have learned, I believe that it is the intention of the Plan to establish a human civilization based on an orientation entirely different from anything that ever before existed. An orientation which, according to the findings of Psychohistory, could never spontaneously come into being?
弟子第一次有机会畅所欲言，在发表长篇大论之前，他稍微迟疑了一下。然后，他才用欠缺自信的口吻说：“根据我所学到的知识，我相信谢顿计划的意图是要建立一个新的文明，而这个文明的基础，是历史上前所未有的新方向。根据心理史学的计算结果，这种导向绝对不可能自行出现……”
"Stop!" The First Speaker was insistent. 'You must not say 'never.' That is a lazy slurring over of the facts. Actually, Psychohistory predicts only probabilities. A particular event may be infinitesimally probable, but the probability is always greater than zero."
“停！”第一发言者强调道，“你不可以用‘绝对’这个词。那是一种偷懒而含糊的说法。事实上，心理史学只能预测几率。某个事件也许极不可能发生，但几率总是大于零。”
"Yes, Speaker. The orientation desired, if I may correct myself, then, is well known to possess no significant probability of spontaneously coming to pass."
“是的，发言者。那么，请准许我修正刚才的答案：大家都知道，这种导向自行出现的几率小之又小。”
"Better. What is the orientation?"
“这就好多了。什么样的导向呢？”
"It is that of a civilization based on mental science. In all the known history of Mankind, advances have been made primarily in physical technology; in the capacity of handling the inanimate world about Man. Control of self and society has been left to chance or to the vague gropings of intuitive ethical systems based on inspiration and emotion. As a result, no culture of greater stability than about fifty-five percent has ever existed, and these only as the result of great human misery."
“一个建立在精神科学之上的文明。在人类历史中，主要都是有形的科技在不断进展；换言之，人类驾驭周遭事物的能力越来越强。然而，人类对于自身以及社会的控制，凭借的却是随机的摸索，或是那些以灵感、直觉、情感为基础的伦理体系。结果，历史上从未出现稳定度大于55%的文明，这可说是人类的大不幸。”
"And why is the orientation we speak of a nonspontaneous one?"
“我们讨论的这个导向，为什么难以自行出现？”
"Because a large minority of human beings are mentally equipped to take part in the advance of physical science, and all receive the crude and visible benefits thereof. Only an insignificant minority, however, are inherently able to lead Man through the greater involvements of Mental Science; and the benefits derived therefrom, while longer lasting, are more subtle and less apparent. Furthermore, since such an orientation would lead to the development of a benevolent dictatorship of the mentally best……virtually a higher subdivision of Man……it would be resented and could not be stable without the application of a force which would depress the rest of Mankind to brute level. Such a development is repugnant to us and must be avoided."
“因为在人类的精英分子中，大多数只具有发展物理科学的潜能，而他们也的确获得一些可见的粗糙成就。然而，唯有极少数天赋异禀人士，能为人类开拓精神科学的领域。这些人的贡献虽然可长可久，他们提出的理论却过于隐晦不明。尤其是，这种导向会导致一个由精神异能者——也就是更高级的人类——所构成的统治阶级，普通人一定怨恨在心，因此他们的统治不可能稳定。除非他们施展精神力量，将普通人贬成畜生。这样的发展是我们绝不愿见到的，因此必须设法避免。”
"What, then, is the solution?"
“那么，解决之道是什么呢？”
"The solution is the Seldon Plan. Conditions have been so arranged and so maintained that in a millennium from its beginnings……six hundred years from now, a Second Galactic Empire will have been established in which Mankind will be ready for the leadership of Mental Science. In that same interval, the Second Foundation in its development, will have brought forth a group of Psychologists ready to assume leadership. Or, as I have myself often thought, the First Foundation supplies the physical framework of a single political unit, and the Second Foundation supplies the mental framework of a ready-made ruling class."
“解决之道就是谢顿计划。这个计划安排并维系了各种有利条件，使得在计划开展仟年之后——也就是再过六百年——第二银河帝国便会兴起，而人类也准备好了接受精神科学的领导。在这仟年的岁月中，第二基地借着精神科学的发展，将培养出一批心理学家，以接掌这个帝国的领导权。而我自己常常想，或许可以说：第一基地建立起单一政体的有形架构，第二基地则提供统治阶层的精神架构。”
"I see. Fairly adequate. Do you think that any Second Empire, even if formed in the time set by Seldon, would do as a fulfillment of his Plan?"
“我听懂了，答得相当完善。即使在谢顿所设定的那个年代，果真有某个第二帝国兴起，你认为它是否真能实现谢顿计划的理想？”
"No, Speaker, I do not. There are several possible Second Empires that may be formed in the period of time stretching from nine hundred to seventeen hundred years after the inception of the Plan, but only one of these is the Second Empire."
“发言者，我认为并非如此。计划开展后的九百至一千七百年间，有好几个第二帝国可能出现，却只有一个是真正的第二帝国。”
"And in view of all this, why is it necessary that the existence of the Second Foundation be hidden……above all, from the First Foundation?"
“综观这些状况，第二基地的存在为何需要保密——尤其是对第一基地保密？”
The Student probed for a hidden meaning to the question and failed to find it. He was troubled in his answer, "For the same reason that the details of the Plan as a whole must be hidden from Mankind in general. The laws of Psychohistory are statistical in nature and are rendered invalid if the actions of individual men are not random in nature. If a sizable group of human beings learned of key details of the Plan, their actions would be governed by that knowledge and would no longer be random in the meaning of the axioms of Psychohistory. In other words, they would no longer be perfectly predictable. Your pardon, Speaker, but I feel that the answer is not satisfactory."
弟子试图找出这个问题的言外之意，结果毫无所获。他吃力地答道：“就如同谢顿计划的细节必须对全体人类保密一样。心理史学定律本质上都是统计性的，倘若个人行动不再是随机的，心理史学就会失效。假如一大群人知晓了谢顿计划的关键内容，他们的行动就会受到影响，不再符合心理史学公设中的随机条件。换句话说，心理史学再也不能精确预测他们的行为。很抱歉，发言者，我自己对这个答案也不满意。”
"It is well that you do. Your answer is quite incomplete. It is the Second Foundation itself which must be hidden, not simply the Plan. The Second Empire is not yet formed. We have still a society which would resent a ruling class of psychologists, and which would fear its development and fight against it. Do you understand that?"
“幸好你有自知之明。你的回答相当不完整。其实是第二基地必须隐藏起来，而并非整个谢顿计划。如今，第二帝国尚未形成。目前的人类社会，仍然无法接受由心理学家组成的统治阶层，因此会畏惧第二帝国的建立，并且会起而反抗。你能了解这一点吗？”
"Yes, Speaker, I do. The point has never been stressed?
“发言者，我了解。但是师长从未强调……”
"Don't minimize. It has never been made……in the classroom, though you should be capable of deducing it yourself. This and many other points we will make now and in the near future during your apprenticeship. You will see me again in a week. By that time, I would like to have comments from you as to a certain problem which I now set before you. I don't want complete and rigorous mathematical treatment. That would take a year for an expert, and not a week for you. But I do want an indication as to trends and directions
“不可小看这一点。虽然在课堂中，师长从来没有提过，可是你自己应该有能力推出这个结论。从现在开始，在你见习的这段时间，除了这一点，我们还会好好研究许多类似的问题。一个星期后你再来见我。现在我给你一个题目，下次来的时候，我要听听你的心得报告。我不要你做完整而严密的数学推导；即使专家也要花上一年的时间，一周内你不可能做到。不过，我希望你能谈谈其中的倾向和发展方向……
"You have here a fork in the Plan at a period in time of about half a century ago. The necessary details are included. You will note that the path followed by the assumed reality diverges from all the plotted predictions; its probability being under one percent. You will estimate for how long the divergence may continue before it becomes uncorrectable. Estimate also the probable end if uncorrected, and a reasonable method of correction."
“你看这里，在大约半世纪前，谢顿计划出现一个分叉。必要的细节都在里面。你不难发现，假如沿着这条路径发展下去，一切都会偏离既定的计划；它发生的几率低于1%。请你估计一下，这个偏差的发展持续多久之后，就会使整个计划无法挽回。顺便估计一下，若是无法挽回，可能的结果会是什么，并且提出一个合理的补救方案。”
The Student flipped the Viewer at random and looked stonily at the passages presented on the tiny, built-in screen.
弟子随手拨动阅读镜，目不转睛地望着其中小型屏幕上的内容。
He said: "Why this particular problem, Speaker? It obviously has significance other than purely academic."
他说：“发言者，请问为什么要我研究这个问题？除了纯学术的探讨，它显然还具有其他的意义。”
"Thank you, my boy. You are as quick as I had expected. The problem is not suppositiiious. Nearly half a century ago, the Mule burst into Galactic history and for ten years was the largest single fact in the universe. He was unprovided for; uncalculated for. He bent the Plan seriously, but not fatally.
“谢谢你，好孩子。不出我所料，你学得很快。这个问题并不是假设性的。将近半个世纪之前，骡突然跃上银河历史的舞台，前后十年间，那是宇宙间最重大的事件。骡并不在我们算计之中，因此我们毫无准备。谢顿计划遭到严重扭曲，好在并非回天乏术。
"To stop him before he did become fatal, however, we were forced to take active part against him. We revealed our existence, and infinitely worse, a portion of our power. The First Foundation has learned of us, and their actions are now predicated on that knowledge. Observe in the problem presented. Here. And here.
“然而，为了在回天乏术之前阻止他，我们被迫主动与他为敌。第二基地的存在因此公诸于世，而比这更糟许多倍的是，我们一部分的能力也因而曝光。第一基地获悉我们的确存在，而他们将采取的行动，可以根据这个事实推测出来。仔细审视面前这个问题，这里，还有这里。
"Naturally, you will not speak of this to anyone."
“当然，你不得对任何人泄露这件事。”
There was an appalled pause, as realization seeped into the Student. He said: "Then the Seldon Plan has failed!"
弟子体会到问题的严重性，感到惊骇不已。愣了一会儿之后，他才说：“那么谢顿计划已经失败了！”
"Not yet. It merely may have failed. The probabilities of success are still twenty-one point four percent, as of the last assessment."
“还没有，只是有可能失败。根据最近一次的估计，成功的几率还有21.4%。”