1 Mathematician

第1章 数学家

CLEON I:……The last Galactic Emperor of the Entun dynasty. He was born in the year 11,988 of the Galactic Era, the same year in which Hari Seldon was born. (It is thought that Seldons birthdate, which some consider doubtful, may have been adjusted to match that of Cleon, whom Seldon, soon after his arrival on Trantor, is supposed to have encountered.)

克里昂一世：……银河帝国恩腾皇朝的末代皇帝。生于银河纪元11988年，亦即哈里·谢顿诞生的同一年。（有人认为谢顿的生年并不可靠，可能经过后人篡改，目的在于构成此一巧合。谢顿抵达川陀之后，想必很快便见到这位皇帝。）

Having succeeded to the Imperial throne in 12,010 at the age of twenty-two, Cleon Is reign represented a curious interval of quiet in those troubled times. This is undoubtedly due to the skills of his Chief of Staff, Eto Demerzel, who so carefully obscured himself from public record that little is known about him.

银河纪元12010年，二十二岁的克里昂一世继承帝位。在那个纷扰不断的时代里，他的统治代表了一段传奇的平静岁月，这无疑得归功于行政首长伊图·丹莫刺尔的政治长才。丹莫刺尔则始终谨慎地隐迹幕后，避免留下公开记录，以致后人对他的了解极其有限。

Cleon himself……

克里昂本人……

ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA

……《银河百科全书》

(All quotations from the Encyclopedia Galactica here reproduced are taken from the 116th Edition, published 1,020 FE by the Encyclopedia Galactica Publishing Co., Terminus, with permission of the publishers.)

Suppressing a small yawn, Cleon said, "Demerzel, have you by any chance ever heard of a man named Hari Seldon?"

压下一个小小的呵欠后，克里昂开口道：“丹莫刺尔，你会不会刚好听说过一个叫哈里·谢顿的人？”

Cleon had been Emperor for just over ten years and there were times at state occasions when, dressed in the necessary robes and regalia, he could manage to look stately. He did so, for instance, in the holograph of himself that stood in the niche in the wall behind him. It was placed so that it clearly dominated the other niches holding the holographs of several of his ancestors.

克里昂继承皇位刚超过十年，在一些国家大典上，当他穿上不可或缺的皇袍，佩上象征皇室的饰物，看起来也能显得冠冕堂皇。举例而言，他身后壁凹中那尊全息立像便是如此。这尊立像显然摆在最突出的位置，令其他壁凹中几位先人的全息像相形见绌。

The holograph was not a totally honest one, for though Cleons hair was light brown in hologram and reality alike, it was a bit thicker in the holograph. There was a certain asymmetry to his real face, for the left side of his upper lip raised itself a bit higher than the right side, and this was somehow not evident in the holograph. And if he had stood up and placed himself beside the holograph, he would have been seen to be 2 centimeters under the 1.83-meter height that the image portrayed……and perhaps a bit stouter.

这尊全息像并非完全写实。例如它的头发虽然也是淡褐色，看来与真实的克里昂无异，却稍嫌浓密了一点。他真正的脸庞有些不对称，上唇左边比右边高些，这点在全息像中也不怎么明显。此外，假如他站起身来，走到自己的全息像旁边，旁人便能看出他比身高一米八三的立像矮了二厘米……或许还丰满少许。

Of course, the holograph was the official coronation portrait and he had been younger then. He still looked young and rather handsome, too, and when he was not in the pitiless grip of official ceremony, there was a kind of vague good nature about his face.

当然，这个全息像是加冕典礼的正式定装照，况且当时他也比较年轻。如今，他看来年轻依旧，而且相当英俊，在没有官方礼节的无情束缚时，也会露出一种含糊的和善表情。

Demerzel said, with the tone of respect that he carefully cultivated, "Hari Seldon? It is an unfamiliar name to me, Sire. Ought I to know of him?"

丹莫刺尔以细心揣摩的恭敬语调说：“哈里·谢顿？启禀陛下，这个名字我并不熟悉。我应该认识他吗？”

"The Minister of Science mentioned him to me last night. I thought you might."

“科学部长昨晚跟我提到这个人。我想你或许听说过。”

Demerzel frowned slightly, but only very slightly, for one does not frown in the Imperial presence. "The Minister of Science, Sire, should have spoken of this man to me as Chief of Staff. If you are to be bombarded from every side……"

丹莫刺尔轻轻皱了皱眉头，但那只是很轻微的一蹙，因为在圣驾前不应有此举动。“陛下，科学部长若要谈及此人，应该来找身为行政首长的我。假如上上下下都对您疲劳轰炸……”

Cleon raised his hand and Demerzel stopped at once. "Please, Demerzel, one cant stand on formality at all times. When I passed the Minister at last nights reception and exchanged a few words with him, he bubbled over. I could not refuse to listen and I was glad I had, for it was interesting."

克里昂举起手来，丹莫刺尔立刻闭嘴。“拜托，丹莫刺尔，你不能一天到晚指望别人中规中矩。昨晚的欢迎会上，我经过那位部长身边，跟他闲谈了几句，他就一发不可收拾。我无法拒绝，而我很高兴听到那番话，因为实在很有意思。”

"In what way interesting, Sire?"

“怎样有意思，陛下？”

"Well, these are not the old days when science and mathematics were all the rage. That sort of thing seems to have died down somehow, perhaps because all the discoveries have been made, don't you think? Apparently, however, interesting things can still happen. At least I was told it was interesting."

“嗯，时代变了，科学和数学不再像以往那么时兴。那些东西似乎多少已经过气，也许是因为能发现的都被发现了，你不这样想吗？然而，有意思的事显然还是不会绝迹，至少他是这么告诉我的。”

"By the Minister of Science, Sire?"

“科学部长吗，陛下？”

"Yes. He said that this Hari Seldon had attended a convention of mathematicians held here in Trantor……they do this every ten years, for some reason……and he said that he had proved that one could foretell the future mathematically."

“没错，他说这个哈里·谢顿参加了一个在我们川陀举行的数学家会议……基于某种原因，这个会议每十年举行一次……他在会上声称，他已经证明人类可以利用数学预测未来。”

Demerzel permitted himself a small smile. "Either the Minister of Science, a man of little acumen, is mistaken or the mathematician is. Surely, the matter of foretelling the future is a childrens dream of magic."

丹莫刺尔故意露出一抹微笑。“科学部长这个人并不怎么精明，若不是他弄错了，就是这个数学家错了。不用说，预测未来这种事是小孩才会相信的把戏。”

"Is it, Demerzel? People believe in such things."

“是吗，丹莫刺尔？民众都相信这种事情。”

"People believe in many things, Sire."

“陛下，民众相信很多事情。”

"But they believe in such things. Therefore, it doesnt matter whether the forecast of the future is true or not. If a mathematician should predict a long and happy reign for me, a time of peace and prosperity for the Empire……Eh, would that not be well?"

“可是他们的确相信这种事情。因此之故，对未来的预测是否正确并不重要。假如一名数学家作出预测，说我能够带来长治久安，说帝国将有一段太平繁荣的岁月……啊，这难道不好吗？”

"It would be pleasant to hear, certainly, but what would it accomplish, Sire?"

“当然，这种说法听来很舒服，可是陛下，它又有什么用呢？”

"But surely if people believe this, they would act on that belief. Many a prophecy, by the mere force of its being believed, is transmuted to fact. These are self-fulfilling prophecies. Indeed, now that I think of it, it was you who once explained this to me."

“只要民众深信不疑，当然就会依据这个信念而行动。许多预言最后终于成真，唯一的凭借只是信心的力量。这就是所谓的‘自我实现的预言’。没错，现在我想起来了，当初对我解释这个道理的就是你。”

Demerzel said, "I believe I did, Sire." His eyes were watching the Emperor carefully, as though to see how far he might go on his own. "Still, if that be so, one could have any person make the prophecy."

丹莫刺尔说：“启禀陛下，我相信自己这么说过。”他小心翼翼地望着这位皇帝，仿佛在斟酌自己该再说多少。“话说回来，果真如此的话，任何人的预言都没有两样。”

"Not all persons would be equally believed, Demerzel. A mathematician, however, who could back his prophecy with mathematical formulas and terminology, might be understood by no one and yet believed by everyone."

“丹莫刺尔，并不是每个人都能令民众同样信服。然而，数学家却能用数学公式和术语来支持自己的预言。即使谁也不了解他说些什么，大家仍会深信不疑。”

Demerzel said, "As usual, Sire, you make good sense. We live in troubled times and it would be worthwhile to calm them in a way that would require neither money nor military effort……which, in recent history, have done little good and much harm."

丹莫刺尔说：“陛下，您的话总是很有道理。我们生在一个动荡的时代，值得借用一种既不费钱又不必采取军事行动的方式来稳定人心。反观近代史，军事行动总是弄巧成拙，反而造成很大的伤害。”

"Exactly, Demerzel," said the Emperor with excitement. "Reel in this Hari Seldon. You tell me you have your strings stretching to every part of this turbulent world, even where my forces dare not go, Pull on one of those strings, then, and bring in this mathematician. Let me see him."

“丹莫刺尔，正是如此。”大帝兴奋地说，“把这个哈里·谢顿牵来。你告诉过我，你在这个纷乱的世界布满眼线，甚至渗透到连我的军队都退避的地方。那就抽回一根线吧，把这个数学家带来，让我见见他。”

"I will do so,Sire,"said Demerzel, who had already located Seldon and who made a mental note to commend the Minister of science for a job well donw.

“陛下，我立即去办。”丹莫刺尔说。其实他早已查出谢顿的下落，此时他暗自提醒自己，一定要嘉奖科学部长的优秀表现。

Hari Seldon did not make an impressive appearance at this time. Like the Emperor Cleon I, he was thirty-two years old, but he was only 1.73 meters tall. His face was smooth and cheerful, his hair dark brown, almost black, and his clothing had the unmistakable touch of provinciality about it.

这个时期的哈里·谢顿貌不惊人。他与克里昂大帝一世一样，当年三十二岁，不过他的身高只有一米七三。他的脸庞光润，显得喜气洋洋，头发是接近黑色的深褐色，而他的衣着则带着一种一眼就看得出的土气。

To anyone in later times who knew of Hari Seldon only as a legendary demigod, it would seem almost sacrilegious for him not to have white hair, not to have an old lined face, a quiet smile radiating wisdom, not to be seated in a wheelchair. Even then, in advanced old age, his eyes had been cheerful, however. There was that.

没有满头的白发、没有满是皱纹的脸庞、没有放射智慧光芒的微笑，而且并未坐在轮椅上的哈里·谢顿，对将他视为传奇性半人半神的后人而言，这种形象几乎可说是对他的亵渎。不过，即使到了耄耋高龄，谢顿的双眼依旧喜孜孜，那是他始终不变的特征。

And his eyes were particularly cheerful now, for his paper had been given at the Decennial Convention. It had even aroused some interest in a distant sort of way and old Osterfith had nodded his head at him and had said, "Ingenious, young man. Most ingenious." Which, coming from Osterfith, was satisfactory. Most satisfactory.

此时此刻，他那双眼睛显得特别喜气洋洋，因为他刚在“十载会议”上发表了一篇论文。这篇论文甚至多少引起了些许注意，老欧斯特费兹曾对他点了点头，说道：“有创意，年轻人，实在有创意。”这句话出自欧斯特费兹之口，令他觉得很有成就感，实在很有成就感。

But now there was a new……and quite unexpected……development and Seldon wasn't sure whether it should increase his cheer and intensify his satisfaction or not.

可是现在却有一个新的……而且相当出乎意料的发展，谢顿不确定自己是否会因此更加喜孜孜，更有成就感。

He stared at the tall young man in uniform……the Spaceship-and-Sun neatly placed on the left side of his tunic.

他瞪着眼前这位人高马大、身穿制服的年轻人。在那人的短袖袍左胸处，有一个帅气的“星舰与太阳”标志。

"Lieutenant Alban Wellis," said the officer of the Emperors Guard before putting away his identification. "Will you come with me now, sir?"

“艾尔本·卫利斯中尉。”将身份证件收起来之前，这位禁卫军军官曾自报姓名。“阁下，请您这就跟我走好吗？”

Wellis was armed, of course. There were two other Guardsmen waiting outside his door. Seldon knew he had no choice, for all the others careful politeness, but there was no reason he could not seek information. He said, "To see the Emperor?"

当然，卫利斯是全副武装前来的，此外还有两名禁卫军等在门外。尽管对方刻意表现得相当礼貌，谢顿却知道自己别无选择。但无论如何，他总有权把事情弄清楚，于是他说：“去觐见大帝？”

"To be brought to the Palace, sir. Thats the extent of my instructions."

“阁下，是前往皇宫。我接到的命令仅止于此。”

"But why?"

“可是为什么呢？”

"I was not told why, sir. And I have my strict instructions that you must come with me……one way or another."

“阁下，我并不知情。我接到严格的命令，一定要您跟我前去……无论用什么方法。”

"But this seems as though I am being arrested. I have done nothing to warrant that."

“可是这样一来，好像我遭到逮捕了。我可没有犯什么法。”

"Say, rather, that it seems you are being given an escort of honor……if you delay me no further."

“应该这么说，好像是我们在为您护驾……请您别再耽误时间。”

Seldon delayed no further. He pressed his lips together, as though to block of further questions, nodded his head, and stepped forward. Even if he was going to meet the Emperor and to receive Imperial commendation, he found no joy in it. He was for the Empire……that is, for the worlds of humanity in peace and union but he was not for the Emperor.

谢顿果然未曾再耽搁。他紧闭嘴唇，仿佛将其他疑问全部封在嘴里，点了点头之后，他便迈开脚步。即使他真要去觐见大帝，去接受皇室的嘉奖，他也觉得没什么意思。他的努力是为了整个帝国，换句话说，是为了所有人类世界的和平与团结，而不是为了这位皇帝。

The lieutenant walked ahead, the other two behind. Seldon smiled at those he passed and managed to look unconcerned. Outside the hotel they climbed into an official ground-car. (Seldon ran his hand over the upholstery; he had never been in anything so ornate.)

中尉走在前面，另外那两名禁卫军殿后。谢顿对擦身而过的每个人报以微笑，设法表现得若无其事。出了旅馆之后，他们便登上一辆官方地面车。谢顿不禁伸手摸了摸椅套，他从未坐过这么豪华的车子。

They were in one of the wealthiest sections of Trantor. The dome was high enough here to give a sensation of being in the open and one could swear……even one such as Hari Seldon, who had been born and brought up on an open world……that they were in sunlight. You could see no sun and no shadows, but the air was light and fragrant.

他们目前所在的地点，是川陀最富有的地区之一。这里的穹顶相当高耸，足以带来置身露天空间的感觉。任何人都会发誓正沐浴在阳光下，就连生长在露天世界的哈里·谢顿也不例外。虽说见不到太阳或任何阴影，空气却显得明朗而清香。

And then it passed and the dome curved down and the walls narrowed in and soon they were moving along an enclosed tunnel, marked periodically with the Spaceship-and-Sun and so clearly reserved (Seldon thought) for official vehicles.

随着周遭的景物迅速后退，穹顶开始下弯，墙壁也变得越来越窄。他们很快就进入一座密闭的隧道，里面每隔固定距离就有一个“星舰与太阳”的标志，它显然（谢顿心想）专供官方交通工具使用。

A door opened and the ground-car sped through. When the door closed behind them, they were in the open……the true, the real open. There were 250 square kilometers of the only stretch of open land on Trantor and on it stood the Imperial Palace. Seldon would have liked a chance to wander through that open land……not because of the Palace, but because it also contained the Galactic University and, most intriguing of all, the Galactic Library.

前面一道门及时打开，地面车快速穿过。当那道门重新关上之后，他们已经来到露天的空间……真正的露天空间。这里是川陀表面仅有的250平方公里露天地表，壮丽的皇宫正坐落其上。谢顿很希望有机会在这片土地上四处逛逛……并非由于皇宫，而是因为这里的帝国大学，以及最吸引他的帝国图书馆。

And yet, in passing from the enclosed world of Trantor into the open patch of wood and parkland, he had passed into a world in which clouds dimmed the sky and a chill wind rued his shirt. He pressed the contact that closed the ground-cars window.

然而，一旦离开密封在穹顶中的川陀，来到这个露天的林地与原野，他便置身于一个乌云遮日的世界，一阵寒风立刻袭上他的衣衫。他随手按下开关，把车窗关了起来。

It was a dismal day outside.

外面是个阴冷的日子。

Seldon was not at all sure he would meet the Emperor. At best, he would meet some official in the fourth or fifth echelon who would claim to speak for the Emperor.

谢顿一点也不相信能见到皇帝陛下。在他想来，自己顶多只能见到某个四五等官位、自称代表皇帝发言的官员。

How many people ever did see the Emperor? In person, rather than on holovision? How many people saw the real, tangible Emperor, an Emperor who never left the Imperial grounds that he, Seldon, was now rolling over.

究竟有多少人见过皇帝陛下？亲眼见到，而并非透过全息电视？有多少人见过真实的、有血有肉的皇帝陛下？这位大帝从不离开皇宫御苑，而他，谢顿，此时正踩在这片土地上。

The number was vanishingly small. Twenty-five million inhabited worlds, each with its cargo of a billion human beings or more……and among all those quadrillions of human beings, how many had, or would ever, lay eyes on the living Emperor. A thousand?

答案几乎趋近于零。二千五百万个住人世界，每个世界的居民至少十亿之众……在这数万兆的人口中，有多少人曾经或将会目睹这位活生生的皇帝？一千人？

And did anyone care? The Emperor was no more than a symbol of Empire, like the Spaceship-and-Sun but far less pervasive, far less real. It was his soldiers and his officials, crawling everywhere, that now represented an Empire that had become a dead weight upon its people……not the Emperor.

又有谁会在乎呢？皇帝只不过是帝国的象征，就像“星舰与太阳”国徽一样，却远不及后者那么普遍与真实。如今代表帝国的，是遍布银河各个角落的战士与官吏；是他们变成人民身上的枷锁，而不是皇帝本人。

So it was that when Seldon was ushered into a moderately sized, lavishly furnished room and found a young-looking man sitting on the edge of a table in a windowed alcove, one foot on the ground and one swinging over the edge, he found himself wondering that any official should be looking at him in so blandly good-natured a way. He had already experienced the fact, over and over, that government officials……and particularly those in the Imperial service……looked grave at all times, as though bearing the weight of the entire Galaxy on their shoulders. And it seemed the lower in importance they were, the graver and more threatening their expression.

因此，当他被引进一间不大不小、装潢豪奢的房间，看见一个年轻人坐在凹室的一张桌子旁，一只脚摆在地上，另一只放在桌缘摇晃，谢顿不禁纳闷怎么会有这样的官员，怎么会以这么温和的目光望着自己。他已经一而再、再而三体验到一件事实，那就是政府官员……尤其是皇帝身边当差的……总是显得十分严肃，仿佛将整个银河的重量担在自己肩上。而且似乎愈是不重要的官员，表情就愈严肃、愈凶恶。

This, then, might be an official so high in the scale, with the sun of power so bright upon him, that he felt no need of countering it with clouds of frowning.

那么，此人就有可能是个官位很高的大官。他掌握的权力有如灿烂的阳光，因而不必利用一脸阴霾面对问题。

Seldon wasn't sure how impressed he ought to be, but he felt that it would be best to remain silent and let the other speak first.

谢顿不确定该表现得多么受宠若惊，但他感到自己最好保持缄默，让对方先开口。

The official said, "You are Hari Seldon, I believe. The mathematician."

那位官员说：“我相信你就是哈里·谢顿，那个数学家。”

Seldon responded with a minimal "Yes, sir," and waited again.

谢顿以最简单的方式答道：“是的，阁下。”接着便继续等待。

The young man waved an arm. "It should be Sire, but I hate ceremony. Its all I get and I weary of it. We are alone, so I will pamper myself and eschew ceremony. Sit down, professor."

年轻人挥了挥手臂。“应该说‘陛下’才对，不过我痛恨繁文缛节。我总是在繁文缛节里打转，这使我厌烦透顶。现在没有旁人，所以我要放纵一下，把繁文缛节抛到脑后。教授，坐吧。”

Halfway through the speech, Seldon realized that he was speaking to the Emperor Cleon, First of that Name, and he felt the wind go out of him. There was a faint resemblance (now that he looked) to the official holograph that appeared constantly in the news, but in that holograph, Cleon was always dressed imposingly, seemed taller, nobler, frozen-faced.

对方讲到一半，谢顿便发觉面前这位正是克里昂大帝一世，这使他感到有点喘不过气来。大帝本人（现在看来）与新闻中经常出现的正式全息肖像有几分相似，不过全息像中的克里昂总是穿得雍容华贵，似乎比本人高大一些，尊贵一点，而且面孔冷漠，毫无表情。

And here he was, the original of the holograph, and somehow he appeared to be quite ordinary.

如今全息像的本尊出现在谢顿面前，却似乎显得相当平凡。

Seldon did not budge.

谢顿纹风不动。

The Emperor frowned slightly and, with the habit of command present even in the attempt to abolish it, at least temporarily, said peremptorily, "I said, Sit down, man. That chair. Quickly."

大帝微微皱了皱眉头。他平常颐指气使惯了，此时虽想放弃这种特权，至少是暂时放弃，却仍然以专横的口吻说：“喂，我说‘坐吧’。那张椅子，快点。”

Seldon sat down, quite speechless. He could not even bring himself to say, "Yes, Sire."

谢顿默默坐下，他甚至连“遵命，陛下”也说不出口。

Cleon smiled. "Thats better. Now we can talk like two fellow human beings, which, after all, is what we are once ceremony is removed. Eh, my man?"

克里昂微微一笑。“这样好多了。现在我们可以像两个同胞一样交谈了，毕竟，一旦除去一切繁文缛节，我们的关系就是这样。啊，你说是不是？”

Seldon said cautiously, "If Your Imperial Majesty is content to say so, then it is so."

谢顿小心翼翼地答道：“假如皇帝陛下喜欢这么说，那就一定没错。”

"Oh, come, why are you so cautious? I want to talk to you on equal terms. It is my pleasure to do so. Humor me."

“喔，别这样，你为何如此小心谨慎？我想要以平等的身份和你交谈。这么做令我开心，你就顺着我吧。”

"Yes, Sire."

“遵命，陛下。”

"A simple Yes, man. Is there no way I can reach you?"

“只要简单一句‘遵命’就行了，我真没办法教会你吗？”

Cleon stared at Seldon and Seldon thought it was a lively and interested stare.

克里昂瞪着谢顿，谢顿觉得那双眼睛充满生气与兴味。

Finally the Emperor said, "You don't look like a mathematician."

最后，大帝总算再度开口：“你看来并不像数学家。”

At last, Seldon found himself able to smile. "I don't know what a mathematician is suppose to look like, Your Imp……"

谢顿终于能够露出笑容。“我不知道数学家应该像什么样子，皇帝陛……”

Cleon raised a cautioning hand and Seldon choked off the honorific.

克里昂举起一只手来表示警告，谢顿赶紧咽下这个尊称。

Cleon said, "White-haired, I suppose. Bearded, perhaps. Old, certainly."

克里昂说：“我认为应该满头白发，或许还留着络腮胡。年纪当然有一大把。”

"Yet even mathematicians must be young to begin with."

“但即使是数学家，也总有年轻的时候。”

"But they are then without reputation. By the time they obtrude themselves on the notice of the Galaxy, they are as I have described."

“可是那时他们都默默无闻。等到他们的名声传遍全银河，他们就是我所描述的那种模样。”

"I am without reputation, Im afraid."

“只怕我并没有什么名气。”

"Yet you spoke at this convention they held here."

“但你曾在此地举行的会议上演讲。”

"A great many of us did. Some were younger than myself. Few of us were granted any attention whatever."

“许多人都上了台，有些比我还要年轻。却没有什么人受到注意。”

"Your talk apparently attracted the attention of some of my officials. I am given to understand that you believe it possible to predict the future."

“你的演讲显然吸引了我的一些官员注意。根据我的了解，你相信未来是有可能预测的。”

Seldon suddenly felt weary. It seemed as though this misinterpretation of his theory was constantly going to occur. Perhaps he should not have presented his paper.

谢顿突然感到一股倦意。似乎不断有人误解他的理论，或许他根本不该发表那篇论文。

He said, "Not quite, actually. What I have done is much more limited than that. In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic events take place. That means that, given a particular starting point, it is impossible to predict outcomes. This is true even in some quite simple systems, but the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. It has always been assumed that anything as complicated as human society would quickly become chaotic and, therefore, unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumptions that will suppress the chaos. That will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities."

他说：“并不尽然，我得到的结果其实狭隘得多。许多系统都会出现一种情形，那就是在某些条件下会产生混沌现象。这就意味着，针对某个特殊的起点，我们不可能预测后来的结果。甚至一些相当简单的系统也是这样，而系统愈复杂，就愈有可能变得混沌。过去我们一直假定，像人类社会这么复杂的东西，会在很短时间之内变得混沌，因此不可预测。然而，我所做到的则是证明，在研究人类社会时，有可能选择一个起点，并做出一组适当的假设，用以压抑混沌效应，使得预测未来变成可能。当然不是完整的细节，而是大致的趋势；并非绝对确定，但是可以计算其中的几率。”

The Emperor, who had listened carefully, said, "But doesnt that mean that you have shown how to predict the future?"

一直仔细聆听的大帝这时问道：“可是，这不正意味着你示范了如何预测未来吗？”

"Again, not quite. I have showed that it is theoretically possible, but no more. To do more, we would actually have to choose a correct starting point, make correct assumptions, and then find ways of carrying through calculations in a finite time. Nothing in my mathematical argument tells us how to do any of this. And even if we could do it all, we would, at best, only assess probabilities. That is not the same as predicting the future; it is merely a guess at what is likely to happen. Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful."

“还是那句话，并不尽然。我证明了理论上的可能性，但仅止于此。想要进一步探究，我们必须真正选择一个正确的起点，并做出一组正确的假设，然后找出能在有限时间之内完成计算的方法。在我的数学论证中，完全没有提到应该如何进行这些。但即使我们通通做得到，顶多也只能估算出几率。这和预测未来并不相同，它只是猜测可能会发生些什么事。每一个成功的政治人物、商人，或是从事任何行业的人，都必须能对未来做出这样的估计，而且估计得相当准，否则他们不会成功。”

"They do it without mathematics."

“他们并未用到数学。”

"True. They do it by intuition."

“是的，他们凭借的是直觉。”

"With the proper mathematics, anyone would be able to assess the probabilities. It wouldnt take the rare human being who is successful because of a remarkable intuitive sense."

“一旦掌握适当的数学工具，任何人都有办法估算几率。这样一来，少数具有优异直觉的成功人士便无法垄断了。”

"True again, but I have merely shown that mathematical analysis is possible; I have not shown it to be practical."

“又说对了，但我只是证明这个数学分析是可能的，我并未证明它实际上可行。”

"How can something be possible, yet not practical?"

“一件事既然可能，又怎么会不可行呢？”

"It is theoretically possible for me to visit each world of the Galaxy and greet each person on each world. However, it would take far longer to do this than I have years to live and, even if I was immortal, the rate at which new human beings are being born is greater than the rate at which I could interview the old and, even more to the point, old human beings would die in great numbers before I could ever get to them."

“理论上，我可以造访银河系每一个世界，和每个世界上的每个人打招呼。然而，完成这项工作需要很长的时间，远超过我一生的寿命。即使我能长生不死，新一代出生的速率也会大于我拜访老一辈的速率。更重要的是，许多老一辈在等不及我拜访他们之前便会死去。”

"And is this sort of thing true of your mathematics of the future?"

“在你的有关未来的数学理论中，情况是不是真的这样？”

Seldon hesitated, then went on. "It might be that the mathematics would take too long to work out, even if one had a computer the size of the Universe working at hyperspatial velocities. By the time any answer had been received, enough years would have elapsed to alter the situation so grossly as to make the answer meaningless."

谢顿迟疑了一下，然后继续说：“这个数学计算或许要花太长的时间才能完成，即使我们有一台和宇宙同样大的电脑，以超空间速度运作也于事无补。在获得任何答案之际，岁月早已流逝多年，情势则已发生巨大变化，足以使得答案变得毫无意义。”

"Why cannot the process be simplified?" Cleon asked sharply.

“过程为什么不能简化呢？”克里昂严厉地问道。

"Your Imperial Majesty,"……Seldon felt the Emperor growing more formal as the answers grew less to his liking and responded with greater formality of his own, "consider the manner in which scientists have dealt with subatomic particles. There are enormous numbers of these, each moving or vibrating in random and unpredictable manner, but this chaos turns out to have an underlying order, so that we can work out a quantum mechanics that answers all the questions we know how to ask. In studying society, we place human beings in the place of subatomic particles, but now there is the added factor of the human mind. Particles move mindlessly; human beings do not. To take into account the various attitudes and impulses of mind adds so much complexity that there lacks time to take care of all of it."

“皇帝陛下，”谢顿感到随着答案越来越不合胃口，大帝的口气变得越来越正式，便决定用最正式的方式回应。“想想科学家处理次原子粒子的方式。那些粒子数量十分庞大，每一个都以随机而不可预测的方式运动或振动。但是这个混沌的底层藏有一种秩序，所以我们才能创立量子力学，用以回答所有我们知道该如何问的问题。而在研究社会现象时，我们将人类摆在次原子粒子的地位，不同的是此时多了一项变因，那就是人类的心灵。粒子以无意识的方式运动，人类则不然。若想将心灵中各种态度与冲动考虑在内，会使得复杂度增加太多，令我们根本没有时间面面顾到。”

"Could not mind, as well as mindless motion, have an underlying order?"

“心灵会不会和粒子的无意识运动一样，也存在一个底层的秩序呢？”

"Perhaps. My mathematical analysis implies that order must underlie everything, however disorderly it may appear to be, but it does not give any hint as to how this underlying order may be found. Consider……Twenty-five million worlds, each with its overall characteristics and culture, each being significantly different from all the rest, each containing a billion or more human beings who each have an individual mind, and all the worlds interacting in innumerable ways and combinations! However theoretically possible a psychohistorical analysis may be, it is not likely that it can be done in any practical sense."

“或许吧。根据我的数学分析，不论表面上看来多么杂乱无章，任何事物背后都必定藏有秩序。至于如何找出这些底层的秩序，这套数学却完全没有提示。想想看……两千五百万个世界，每一个都有整体的特征与文化，每一个都和其他世界大不相同，每一个都至少包含十亿人口，人人又各自拥有一个独立的心灵，而所有这些世界，则以数不清的方式和组合在进行互动。不论心理史学分析在理论上多么可能，却难以有什么实际上的应用。”

"What do you mean psychohistorical?"

“你所谓的‘心理史学’是什么意思？”

"I refer to the theoretical assessment of probabilities concerning the future as psychohistory. "

“我将‘对未来的理论性几率估算’称为心理史学。”

The Emperor rose to his feet suddenly, strode to the other end of the room, turned, strode back, and stopped before the still-sitting Seldon.

大帝突然起身，大步走向房间另一侧，然后一个转身，又大步走回来，驻足于仍坐着的谢顿面前。

Stand up! he commanded.

“站起来！”他命令道。

Seldon rose and looked up at the somewhat taller Emperor. He strove to keep his gaze steady.

谢顿赶紧起立，抬头望着比自己高几分的大帝，勉力维持自己的目光坚定不移。

Cleon finally said, "This psychohistory of yours……if it could be made practical, it would be of great use, would it not?"

克里昂终于开口：“你的这个心理史学……假如能变得实际可行，会有很大的用处，对不对？”

"Of enormous use, obviously. To know what the future holds, in even the most general and probabilistic way, would serve as a new and marvelous guide for our actions, one that humanity has never before had. But, of course……" He paused.

“显然会有极大的用处。若能知道未来有些什么，即使是以最概略性、最几率性的方式，也能为我们的行动提供一个崭新而绝佳的指导，这乃是人类从未掌握的。可是，当然……”他突然住口。

"Well?" said Cleon impatiently.

“怎么样？”克里昂不耐烦地说。

"Well, it would seem that, except for a few decision-makers, the results of psychohistorical analysis would have to remain unknown to the public."

“嗯，情况似乎是这样的，除了少数决策者之外，心理史学分析的结果必须对大众保密。”

"Unknown!" exclaimed Cleon with surprise.

“保密！”克里昂高声惊叫。

"Its clear. Let me try to explain. If a psychohistorical analysis is made and the results are then given to the public, the various emotions and reactions of humanity would at once be distorted. The psychohistorical analysis, based on emotions and reactions that take place without knowledge of the future, become meaningless. Do you understand?"

“这很明显，让我试着解释一下。假如我们完成一个心理史学分析，并将结果公诸于世，人类的种种情绪和种种反应必将立刻受到扭曲。这样一来，心理史学分析就会变得毫无意义，因为它所根据的，是众人对未来不知情的情况下所产生的情绪和反应。您了解我的意思吗？”

The Emperors eyes brightened and he laughed aloud. "Wonderful!"

大帝突然眼睛一亮，哈哈大笑几声。“太好了！”

He clapped his hand on Seldons shoulder and Seldon staggered slightly under the blow.

他伸手拍了拍谢顿的肩膀，谢顿不禁轻轻晃了一下。

"Dont you see, man?" said Cleon. "Dont you see? Theres your use. You don't need to predict the future. Just choose a future……a good future, a useful future……and make the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions and reactions in such a way that the future you predicted will be brought about. Better to make a good future than predict a bad one."

“你这个人，你看不出来吗？”克里昂说，“难道你看不出来吗？这就是你的用处。你根本不需要预测未来，而只要选择一个未来……一个好的未来、一个有用的未来……然后做出一种预测，让所有人类的情绪和反应都发生变化，以便实现你预测的那个未来。与其预测一个坏的未来，不如制造一个好的未来。”

Seldon frowned. "I see what you mean, Sire, but that is equally impossible."

谢顿皱起眉头。“启禀陛下，我懂得您的意思，但这同样是不可能的事。”

"Impossible?"

“不可能？”

"Well, at any rate, impractical. don't you see? If you cant start with human emotions and reactions and predict the future they will bring about, you cant do the reverse either. You cant start with a future and predict the human emotions and reactions that will bring it about."

“嗯，至少是不切实际。您看不出来吗？倘若我们不能从人类的情绪和反应出发，不能预测这些因素所将导致的未来，那就同样无法反其道而行。我们不能从一个选定的未来出发，反推它的源头是哪些人类情绪和反应。”

Cleon looked frustrated. His lips tightened. "And your paper, then?……Is that what you call it, a paper?……Of what use is it?"

克里昂显得相当沮丧，紧紧抿着嘴唇。“那么，你的论文呢？……你是不是管它叫论文？……它又有什么用呢？”

"It was merely a mathematical demonstration. It made a point of interest to mathematicians, but there was no thought in my mind of its being useful in any way."

“那只是一种数学论证。它提出一个令数学家感兴趣的结论，但我从未想到会有任何实际用途。”

"I find that disgusting," said Cleon angrily.

“我发觉这实在可恶。”克里昂气呼呼地说。

Seldon shrugged slightly. More than ever, he knew he should never have given the paper. What would become of him if the Emperor took it into his head that he had been made to play the fool?

谢顿微微耸了耸肩。他现在更加确定一件事，自己根本不该发表那篇论文。假如大帝自认为成了别人愚弄的对象，自己会有什么样的下场呢？

And indeed, Cleon did not look as though he was very far from believing that.

事实上，克里昂看来像是快要相信这一点了。

Nevertheless, he said, "what if you were to make predictions of the future, mathematically justified or not; predictions that government officials, human beings whose expertise it is to know what the public is likely to do, will judge to be the kind that will bring about useful reactions?"

“话说回来，”他说，“假如你对未来做出一些预测，不论是否在数学上站得住脚，但根据那些了解大众趋向的政府官员判断，它们就是会带来有用的反应，你认为如何？”

"Why would you need me to do that? The government officials could make those predictions themselves and spare the middleman."

“您为何需要由我做这件事？政府官员自己就能做这些预测，不必假手中间人。”

"The government officials could not do so as effectively. Government officials do make statements of the sort now and then. They are not necessarily believed."

“政府官员做来不会那么有效。他们的确偶尔会发表这类的声明，可是民众不一定相信他们。”

"Why would I be?"

“为何又会相信我呢？”

"You are a mathematician. You would have calculated the future, not……not intuited it……if that is a word."

“你是个数学家，你会‘计算’未来，而不是……不是去直觉它……如果可以这样说的话。”

"But I would not have done so."

“可是我并没有这个能力。”

"Who would know that?" Cleon watched him out of narrowed eyes. There was a pause.

“谁会知道呢？”克里昂眯起眼睛望着他。

Seldon felt trapped. If given a direct order by the Emperor, would it be safe to refuse? If he refused, he might be imprisoned or executed. Not without trial, of course, but it is only with great difficulty that a trial can be made to go against the wishes of a heavy-handed officialdom, particularly one under the command of the Emperor of the vast Galactic Empire.

接下来是短暂的沉默。谢顿感到自己中计了。假如大帝直接对他下令，他敢拒绝吗？若是拒绝，他也许就会遭到监禁或处决。当然不会没有审判，可是面对一个专制的官僚体制，尤其是银河帝国的皇帝指挥之下的极权官僚体制，想要获得公平审判是难上加难。

He said finally, "It wouldnt work."

最后，他终于答道：“这样行不通。”

"Why not?"

“为什么？”

"If I were asked to predict vague generalities that could not possibly come to pass until long after this generation and, perhaps, the next were dead, we might get away with it, but, on the other hand, the public would pay little attention. They would not care about a glowing eventuality a century or two in the future.

“假如要我做出一些含糊的一般性预测，必须等到我们这一代，甚至下一代死后多年才有可能实现，那么也许可以蒙混过去。可是，这样一来，民众却不会如何留意。对于一两个世纪之后才会发生的重大事件，他们是不可能关心的。

"To attain results," Seldon went on, "I would have to predict matters of sharper consequence, more immediate eventualities. Only to these would the public respond. Sooner or later, though……and probably sooner……one of the eventualities would not come to pass and my usefulness would be ended at once. With that, your popularity might be gone, too, and, worst of all, there would be no further support for the development of psychohistory so that there would be no chance for any good to come of it if future improvements in mathematical insights help to make it move closer to the realm of practicality."

“为了获得成果，”谢顿继续说，“我必须预测一些结果较为明确的事件，或是一些近在眼前的变故。只有这种预测才能获得大众的回应。不过迟早……也许不会迟只会早……其中一项预测并不会实现，而我的利用价值将立刻结束。这样一来，您的声望也可能随之消失。更糟的是，以后再也不会有人支持心理史学的发展，即使未来的数学能将它改良到接近实用的程度，它也不会再有大显身手的机会了。”

Cleon threw himself into a chair and frowned at Seldon. "Is that all you mathematicians can do? Insist on impossibilities?"

克里昂猛然坐下，对着谢顿皱起眉头。“你们数学家能做的就是这件事吗？坚持各种的不可能？”

Seldon said with desperate softness, "It is you, Sire, who insist on impossibilities."

谢顿拼了命以和缓的语调说：“是您，陛下，在坚持一些不可能的事。”

"Let me test you, man. Suppose I asked you to use your mathematics to tell me whether I would some day be assassinated? What would you say?"

“你这个人，让我来测验你一下。假如我要你利用你的数学告诉我，是否有朝一日我会遇刺身亡，你会怎么说？”

"My mathematical system would not give an answer to so specific a question, even if psychohistory worked at its best. All the quantum mechanics in the world cannot make it possible to predict the behavior of one lone electron, only the average behavior of many."

“即使将心理史学发挥到极致，这个数学体系仍然无法回答如此特定的问题。全世界的量子力学专家同心协力，也不可能预测单独一个电子的踪迹，而只能预测众多电子的平均行为。”

"You know your mathematics better than I do. Make an educated guess based on it. Will I someday be assassinated?"

“你比我更了解你自己的数学理论，就根据它做个合理的猜测吧。我是否有朝一日会遇刺？”

Seldon said softly, "You lay a trap for me, Sire. Either tell me what answer you wish and I will give it to you or else give me free right to make what answer I wish without punishment."

谢顿柔声答道：“陛下，您这是对我设下圈套。干脆告诉我您想要听什么答案，我好直接说出来，否则就请授权给我，让我自由回答而不至招罪。”

"Speak as you will."

“你尽管说吧。”

"Your word of honor?"

“您以荣誉担保？”

"Do you want it an writing?" Cleon was sarcastic.

“你要我立下字据吗？”克里昂语带讥讽。

"Your spoken word of honor will be sufficient," said Seldon, his heart sinking, for he was not certain it would be.

“有您口头的荣誉担保就够了。”谢顿的心往下沉，因为他不确定会有什么结果。

"You have my word of honor."

“我以荣誉担保。”

"Then I can tell you that in the past four centuries nearly half the Emperors have been assassinated, from which I conclude that the chances of your assassination are roughly one in two."

“那么我可以告诉您，在过去四个世纪中，几乎有一半的皇帝遇刺身亡，根据这一点，我推断您遇刺的机会约略是二分之一。”

"Any fool can give that answer," said Cleon with contempt. "It takes no mathematician."

“任何傻瓜都能说出这个答案。”克里昂以轻蔑的口吻说，“根本不需要数学家。”

"Yet I have told you several times that my mathematics is useless for practical problems."

“可是我跟您说过好几次了，我的数学理论对实际问题毫无用处。”

"Cant you even suppose that I learn the lessons that have been given me by my unfortunate predecessors?"

“难道你就不能假设，我从那些不幸的先帝身上学到教训了？”

Seldon took a deep breath and plunged in. "No, Sire. All history shows that we do not learn from the lessons of the past. For instance, you have allowed me here in a private audience. What if it were in my mind to assassinate you? Which it isn't , Sire," he added hastily.

谢顿深深吸了一口气，一鼓作气道：“不能的，陛下。历史在在显示，我们无法从历史中学到任何教训。举例而言，您准许我在这里单独觐见，万一我有心行刺呢？这当然不是事实，陛下。”他赶紧补充一句。

Cleon smiled without humor. "My man, you don't take into account our thoroughness……or advances in technology. We have studied your history, your complete record. When you arrived, you were scanned. Your expression and voiceprints were analyzed. We knew your emotional state in detail; we practically knew your thoughts. Had there been the slightest doubt of your harmlessness, you would not have been allowed near me. In fact, you would not now be alive."

克里昂冷冷一笑。“你这个人，你没有考虑到我们的科技多么完善……或说多么先进。我们研究过你的背景，以及你的完整履历。在你抵达后，你就接受了扫描，你的面容和声纹都经过分析。我们知道你详尽的情绪状态，几乎可以说知道你的思想。对你的忠贞若有丝毫怀疑，就绝不会允许你接近我。事实上，是你根本活不到现在。”

A wave of nausea swept through Seldon, but he continued. "Outsiders have always found it difficult to get at Emperors, even with technology less advanced. However, almost every assassination has been a palace coup. It is those nearest the Emperor who are the greatest danger to him. Against that danger, the careful screening of outsiders is irrelevant. And as for your own officials, your own Guardsmen, your own intimates, you cannot treat them as you treat me."

谢顿感到一阵晕眩，不过他继续说：“即使没有那么先进的科技，外人也总是难以接近任何一位皇帝。然而，几乎每次行刺都源自宫廷政变。对皇帝构成最大威胁的，就是最接近皇帝的人。想要趋吉避凶，细查外人其实无济于事。至于您自己的官员、您自己的禁卫军、您自己的亲信，您总不能以对待我的方式对待他们。”

Cleon said, "I know that, too, and at least as well as you do. The answer is that I treat those about me fairly and I give them no cause for resentment."

克里昂说：“这点我也知道，至少和你一样清楚。我的回答是，我对身边每个人都很好，让他们没有怨恨我的理由。”

"A foolish……" began Seldon, who then stopped in confusion.

“愚蠢……”说到这里谢顿突然住口，显得十分狼狈。

"Go on," said Cleon angrily. "I have given you permission to speak freely. How am I foolish?"

“继续，”克里昂怒冲冲地说，“我已经准许你自由发表意见。我如何愚蠢？”

"The word slipped out, Sire. I meant irrelevant. Your treatment of your intimates is irrelevant. You must be suspicious; it would be inhuman not to be. A careless word, such as the one I used, a careless gesture, a doubtful expression and you must withdraw a bit with narrowed eyes. And any touch of suspicion sets in motion a vicious cycle. The intimate will sense and resent the suspicion and will develop a changed behavior, try as he might to avoid it. You sense that and grow more suspicious and, in the end, either he is executed or you are assassinated. It is a process that has proved unavoidable for the Emperors of the past four centuries and it is but one sign of the increasing difficulty of conducting the affairs of the Empire."

“启禀陛下，我说溜了嘴。我原本想说的是‘无关’，这和您如何对待亲信根本无关。您一定会疑神疑鬼，否则就不符合人性。一个不经意的字眼……例如我刚才的表现，或是一个不经意的动作、一个可疑的表情，都必定会令您提高警觉，并收回一点信任。而任何猜疑都将造成恶性循环……那位亲信感觉得到，他会恼恨您的疑心，并会改变他的言行举止，尽可能避免让您再度起疑；您则会察觉这个变化，因而疑心越来越重，到头来不是他被处决，就是您遇刺身亡。过去四个世纪的好多位皇帝，都无法避免这样的过程。帝国事务变得越来越难处理，这只是征兆之一。”

"Then nothing I can do will avoid assassination."

“那么，我无论如何无法避免遇刺喽。”

"No, Sire," said Seldon, "but, on the other hand, you may prove fortunate."

“是的，陛下。”谢顿说，“不过，反之，您也可能属于幸运的那一半。”

Cleons fingers were drumming on the arm of his chair. He said harshly, "You are useless, man, and so is your psychohistory. Leave me." And with those words, the Emperor looked away, suddenly seeming much older than his thirty-two years.

克里昂用手指轮流敲打座椅扶手，然后厉声道：“你这个人，你根本没用，你的心理史学也一样。给我走吧。”说完这几句话，大帝转过头去，突然好像比三十二岁的实际年龄老了许多。

"I have said my mathematics would be useless to you, Sire. My profound apologies." Seldon tried to bow but at some signal he did not see, two guards entered and took him away.

“启禀陛下，我早就说过，我的数学理论对您没用。我致上最深的歉意。”

Cleons voice came after him from the royal chamber. "Return that man to the place from which he was brought earlier."

谢顿本来准备鞠躬，但两名卫士不知如何接到了讯号，及时进来将他带走。御书房中还传出克里昂的一句：“这个人从哪里来，就把他送回哪里去。”

Eto Demerzel emerged and glanced at the Emperor with a hint of proper deference. He said, "Sire, you have almost lost your temper."

伊图·丹莫刺尔适时出现，以适度尊崇的眼神瞥了大帝一眼。“陛下，您差点就发脾气了。”

Cleon looked up and, with an obvious effort, managed to smile. "Well, so I did. The man was very disappointing."

克里昂抬起头来，挤出一个显然很勉强的微笑。“嗯，没错。那人实在令我非常失望。”

"And yet he promised no more than he offered."

“但他并未做出能力范围外的承诺。”

"He offered nothing."

“他一点能力也没有。”

"And promised nothing, Sire."

“也就没有做任何承诺，陛下。”

"It was disappointing."

“真令人失望。”

Demerzel said, "More than disappointing, perhaps. The man is a loose cannon, Sire."

丹莫刺尔说：“或许不只令人失望而已。这人是一颗流弹，陛下。”

"A loose what, Demerzel? You are always so full of strange expressions. What is a cannon?"

“一颗流什么，丹莫刺尔？你总是喜欢用许多古怪的词句。流弹又是什么？”

Demerzel said gravely, "It is simply an expression I heard in my youth, Sire. The Empire is full of strange expressions and some are unknown on Trantor, as those of Trantor are sometimes unknown elsewhere."

丹莫刺尔以严肃的口吻说：“启禀陛下，这不过是我年轻时听到的一种说法。帝国境内充满古怪的词句，有些是川陀从未听说过的，正如同川陀的某些惯用语，其他地方的人也听不懂一样。”

"Do you come to teach me the Empire is large? What do you mean by saying that the man is a loose cannon?"

“你是来提醒我帝国疆域的辽阔？你说那人是一颗流弹，这到底是什么意思？”

"Only that he can do much harm without necessarily intending it. He does not know his own strength. Or importance."

“只是指他可能犯下无心之失，造成重大伤害。他不知道自己的力量，或者说重要性。”

"You deduce that, do you, Demerzel?"

“你推论出来的吗，丹莫刺尔？”

"Yes, Sire. He is a provincial. He does not know Trantor or its ways. He has never been on our planet before and he cannot behave like a man of breeding, like a courtier. Yet he stood up to……"

“是的，陛下。他是个乡下人，并不了解川陀这个地方以及此地的规矩。他以前从未到过我们的行星，以致无法表现得像个有教养的人，比如说像个廷臣。但是他竟然敢跟您顶嘴。”

"And why not? I gave him permission to speak. I left off ceremony. I treated him as an equal."

“有何不可？我准许他有话直说。我取消了繁文缛节，以平等的方式对待他。”

"Not entirely, Sire. You don't have it within you to treat others as equals. You have the habit of command. And even if you tried to put a person at his ease, there would be few who could manage it. Most would be speechless or, worse, subservient and sycophantic. This man stood up to you."

“启禀陛下，并不尽然。您天生就无法平等对待他人，您习惯于发号施令。即使您试图让对方轻松自在，也很少有人能做到这一点。大多数人会变得哑口无言，更糟的表现则是奉承和阿谀。可是，那人却跟您顶嘴。”

"Well, you may admire that, Demerzel, but I didn't like him." Cleon looked thoughtfully discontented. "Did you notice that he made no effort to explain his mathematics to me? It was as though he knew I would not understand a word of it."

“嗯，丹莫刺尔，你可以认为这很了不起，但是我不喜欢他。”克里昂看来十分不满，“你注意到了吗？他并没有尝试对我解释他的数学理论，好像他知道我一个字也听不懂。”

"Nor would you have, Sire. You are not a mathematician, nor a scientist of any kind, nor an artist. There are many fields of knowledge in which others know more than you. It is their task to use their knowledge to serve you. You are the Emperor, which is worth all their specializations put together."

“启禀陛下，您的确听不懂。您不是数学家，也不是任何领域的科学家，同时也不是艺术家。在许许多多的知识领域，都有人比您懂得还多，他们的职责就是利用这些知识为您服务。您是皇帝，这点就不亚于他们所有专长的总和。”

"Is it? I would not mind being made to feel ignorant by an old man who had accumulated knowledge over many years. But this man, Seldon, is just my age. How does he know so much?"

“是吗？如果是个花了许多岁月累积知识的老头，令我感到自己某方面一窍不通，那我倒也不在意。可是这个人，谢顿，只不过和我同年。他怎么会知道那么多？”

"He has not had to learn the habit of command, the art of reaching a decision that will affect the lives of others."

“他不必学习领袖气质，也不必学习如何做出左右他人生死的决策。”

"Sometimes, Demerzel, I wonder if you are laughing at me."

“有些时候，丹莫刺尔，我会怀疑你是不是在讥笑我。”

"Sire?" said Demerzel reproachfully.

“陛下？”丹莫刺尔以责难的口吻说。

"But never mind. Back to that loose cannon of yours. Why should you consider him dangerous? He seems a naive provincial to me."

“不过算了吧，回到你刚才说的那个流弹。你为什么要认为他是危险人物？在我看来，他似乎是个纯真的乡下人。”

"He is. But he has this mathematical development of his."

“没错，可是他拥有那套数学理论。”

"He says it is useless."

“他说那根本没用。”

"You thought it might be useful. I thought so, after you had explained it to me. Others might. The mathematician may come to think so himself, now that his mind has been focused on it. And who knows, he may yet work out some way of making use of it. If he does, then to foretell the future, however mistily, is to be in a position of great power. Even if he does not wish power for himself, a kind of self-denial that always seems to me to be unlikely, he might be used by others."

“您本来认为它也许有用。而在您向我解释之后，我也这么以为，所以其他人也有可能抱持同样的看法。既然这位数学家已经将心思集中在这个问题上，他自己的想法或许也会改变。谁知道呢，他也许会研究出利用这套数学的方法。假如他成功了，有办法预测未来了，不论多么朦胧模糊，他也等于掌握了极大的权力。即使他自己不希望拥有权力……我总认为如此自制的人少之又少……他也可能被别人利用。”

"I tried to use him. He would not."

“我试图利用他，可是他不肯。”

"He had not given it thought. Perhaps now he will. And if he was not interested in being used by you, might he not be persuaded by……let us say……the Mayor of Wye?"

“刚刚他没有好好考虑，也许现在他就会愿意。他若不喜欢被您利用，难道就不可能被……比方说……卫荷区长说服吗？”

"Why should he be willing to help Wye and not us?"

“他为什么会愿意帮助卫荷区长，而不愿帮我们？”

"As he explained, it is hard to predict the emotions and behavior of individuals."

“正如他刚才的解释，个体的情绪和行为是很难预测的。”

Cleon scowled and sat in thought. "Do you really think he might develop this psychohistory of his to the point where it is truly useful? He is so certain he cannot."

克里昂绷着脸，坐在那里沉思良久。“你真的认为，他有可能将他的心理史学发展到真正有用的地步？他十分肯定自己做不到这一点。”

"He may, with time, decide he was wrong in denying the possibility."

“或许若干时日之后，他会发现否认这个可能性是个错误。”

Cleon said, "Then I suppose I ought to have kept him."

克里昂道：“这么说，我想我该把他留下。”

Demerzel said, "No, Sire. Your instinct was correct when you let him go. Imprisonment, however disguised, would cause resentment and despair, which would not help him either to develop his ideas further or make him eager to help us. Better to let him go as you have done, but to keep him forever on an invisible leash. In this way, we can see that he is not used by an enemy of yourself, Sire, and we can see that when the time comes and he has fully developed his science, we can pull on our leash and bring him in. Then we could be……more persuasive."

丹莫刺尔说：“不然，陛下，当您让他离去时，您的直觉完全正确。倘若将他囚禁，无论做得多么不着痕迹，都将引起他的愤恨和绝望。这样不但无助于他进一步发展他的理论，也无法使他心甘情愿为我们服务。最好还是放他走，如您所做的那样，但是永远用一条隐形的绳索拴住他。这样一来，我们就能确定他不至于被陛下的敌人利用，也可以确定等到时机成熟，他将这个科学理论发展完备时，我们便能收回那条绳索，再把他拉进来。那个时候，我们可以……态度强硬一点。”

"But what if he it picked up by an enemy of mine or, better, of the Empire, for I am the Empire after all, or if, of his own accord, he wishes to serve an enemy……I don't consider that out of the question, you see."

“可是，万一他被我的敌人抓走，或者应该说帝国的敌人，毕竟我就等于这个帝国，还有，如果他自愿为敌人效命呢？我不认为这点绝无可能，你了解吧。”

"Nor should you. I will see to it that this doesnt happen, but if, against all striving, it does happen, it would be better if no one has him than if the wrong person does."

“您的顾虑没错。我会确保不至于发生这种事，但是，倘若尽了最大努力，仍然出现这种情形，与其让不适当的人拥有他，倒不如让谁都得不到。”

Cleon looked uneasy. "Ill leave that all in your hands, Demerzel, but I hope were not too hasty. He could be, after all, nothing but the purveyor of a theoretical science that does not and cannot work."

克里昂显得相当不安。“丹莫刺尔，我将这件事完全交到你手上，但我希望我们不要操之过急。无论如何，他有可能只是个理论科学的买办，并没有什么真正的用处。”

"Quite possibly, Sire, but it would be safer to assume the man is……or might be……important. We lose only a little time and nothing more if we find that we have concerned ourselves with a nonentity. We may lose a Galaxy if we find we have ignored someone of great importance."

“启禀陛下，很有可能，不过为了安全起见，最好还是假设此人很重要……或者说也许很重要。假使到头来，我们发现只是在为一个无足轻重的角色伤脑筋，那不过浪费了一点时间而已，不会有其他损失。但如果我们最后发现，忽略了一个再重要不过的人物，那我们将会丢掉整个银河。”

"Very well, then," said Cleon, "but I trust I wont have to know the details……if they prove unpleasant."

“这样很好，”克里昂说，“但我确信我不必知道细节……倘若细节果真令人不快。”

Demerzel said, "Let us hope that will not be the case."

丹莫刺尔说：“让我们期望不会有那种结果。”

Seldon had an evening, a night, and part of a morning to get over his meeting with the Emperor. At least, the changing quality of light within the walkways, moving corridors, squares, and parks of the Imperial Sector of Trantor made it seem that an evening, a night, and part of a morning had passed.

经过了一个黄昏、整个夜晚，以及半个上午的时光，谢顿慢慢从觐见大帝的情绪中恢复过来。至少，川陀皇区里的人行道、活动回廊、广场与公园的光线明暗变化，使人觉得已历经了一个黄昏、整个夜晚，以及第二天的半个上午。

He sat now in a small park on a small plastic seat that molded itself neatly to his body and he was comfortable. Judging from the light, it seemed to be midmorning and the air was just cool enough to seem fresh without possessing even the smallest bite.

此刻，他坐在一座小公园的一张小型塑胶椅上，那椅子弯成与他的身躯刚好吻合的形状，令他感到非常舒服。根据光线判断，上午似乎刚过一半，空气凉爽适中，刚好使人感到清新，却一点也没有寒意。

Was it like this all the time? He thought of the gray day outside when he went to see the Emperor. And he thought of all the gray days and cold days and hot days and rainy days and snowy days on Helicon, his home, and he wondered if one could miss them. Was it possible to sit in a park on Trantor, having ideal weather day after day, so that it felt as though you were surrounded by nothing at all……and coming to miss a howling wind or a biting cold or a breathless humidity?

气候是否总是这样？他想到了觐见大帝时遇到的那种灰暗天气。然后，他又想起故乡赫利肯星的阴天、冷天、热天、雨天以及下雪天，不禁怀疑有谁会怀念那种日子。坐在川陀的一座公园里，日复一日都是理想的天气，几乎令人感到周遭一片虚空，还有没有可能会怀念怒吼的狂风、刺骨的寒冷，或是令人窒息的湿气？

Perhaps. But not on the first day or the second or the seventh. He would have only this one day and he would leave tomorrow. He meant to enjoy it while he could. He might, after all, never return to Trantor.

或许会吧，但不是在第一天、第二天，甚至第七天上头。而他只剩下今天最后一天，明天即将离开此地。他打定主意趁机享受一番，毕竟，自己可能再也不会重返川陀。

Still, he continued to feel uneasy at having spoken as independently as he had to a man who could, at will, order ones imprisonment or execution……or, at the very least, the economic and social death of loss of position and status.

然而，他仍旧感到惴惴不安，始终无法忘怀曾在没有其他人在场的情况下，和一个能随意下令监禁或处决任何人的人（至少他能剥夺他人的社会地位，造成一种经济性与社会性的死亡）做过一次晤谈。

Before going to bed, Seldon had looked up Cleon I in the encyclopedic portion of his hotel room computer. The Emperor had been highly praised as, no doubt,? all Emperors in their own lifetime, regardless of their deeds. Seldon had dismissed that, but he was interested in the fact that Cleon had been born in the Palace and had never left its grounds. He had never been in Trantor itself, in any part of the multi-domed world. It was a matter of security, perhaps, but what it meant was that the Emperor was in prison, whether he admitted the matter to himself or not. It might be the most luxurious prison in the Galaxy, but it was a prison just the same.

就寝之前，谢顿利用旅馆房间的电脑，从电子百科全书查到了克里昂一世的资料。内容照例是为这位皇帝歌功颂德，就像所有的皇帝生前所受到的歌颂一样，与他们的政绩毫无关系。谢顿略过那些内容，他感兴趣的是发现克里昂生于皇宫，一生从未离开御苑。他从来没有到过真正的川陀……这个覆盖着多面穹顶的世界。也许这是基于安全考量，但它代表的则是这位皇帝一直遭到囚禁，不论他自己是否承认这一点。那可能是全银河最豪华的牢狱，但无论如何还是牢狱。

And though the Emperor had seemed mild-mannered and had shown no sign of being a bloody-minded autocrat as so many of his predecessors had been, it was not good to have attracted his attention. Seldon welcomed the thought of leaving tomorrow for Helicon, even though it would be winter (and a rather nasty one, so far) back home.

尽管这位皇帝似乎相当温和，一点也不像历代多位嗜血的独裁暴君，但引起他的注意总不是好事。谢顿很高兴明天就要回赫利肯，虽说家乡如今正值冬季（而且是个酷寒的冬季）。

He looked up at the bright diffuse light. Although it could never rain in here, the atmosphere was far from dry. A fountain played not far from him; the plants were green and had probably never felt drought. Occasionally, the shrubbery rustled as though a small animal or two was hidden there. He heard the hum of bees.

他抬头望了望漫射的明亮光线。虽然此地永远不会下雨，大气却绝对不算干燥。离他不远处有一座喷泉；植物是绿油油的一片，或许从未尝过干旱的滋味。灌木丛偶尔会沙沙作响，好像有一两只小动物躲在里面。此外，他还听到蜜蜂的嗡嗡声。

Really, though Trantor was spoken of throughout the Galaxy as an artificial world of metal and ceramic, in this small patch it felt positively rustic.

真的，纵然整个银河都说川陀是个金属与陶质建成的人工世界，但在这个小小范围内，却令人有置身田园的感觉。

There were a few other persons taking advantage of the park all wearing light hats, some quite small. There was one rather pretty young woman not far away, but she was bent over a viewer and he could not see her face clearly. A man walked past, looked at him briefly and incuriously, then sat down in a seat facing him and buried himself in a sheaf of teleprints, crossing one leg, in its tight pink trouser leg, over the other.

附近有几个人也在享受这座公园，他们都戴着轻便的帽子，有些相当小。不远处有个挺漂亮的年轻女子，不过她正弯腰凑向一具观景器，他无法看清她的脸庞。此时一名男子经过，对他不经意地望了一眼，然后在对面的椅子上坐下来，埋头阅读一扎电讯报表。那人还翘起二郎腿，谢顿注意到他穿着一条粉红色紧身裤。

There was a tendency to pastel shades among the men, oddly enough, while the women mostly wore white. Being a clean environment, it made sense to wear light colors. He looked down in amusement at his own Heliconian costume, which was predominantly dull brown. If he were to stay on Trantor as he was not he would need to purchase suitable clothing or he would become an object of curiosity or laughter or repulsion. The man with the teleprints had, for instance, looked up at him more curiously this time……no doubt intrigued by his Outworldish clothing.

真奇怪，此地男士的衣着倾向于花俏，反倒是女子大多穿着白色衣裳。由于环境相当清洁，穿着淡色服装是很合理的一件事。他低下头来，看了看自己的赫利肯服饰，主要的色系是沉闷的褐色，令他感到有些可笑。假如他要留在川陀……虽说事实不然……就得购买一些适当的衣物，否则必将招来好奇的眼光，或是成为嘲笑或排斥的对象。比方说，那个拿着电讯报表的男子，这回便以较为好奇的眼光抬头望着他，无疑是被他的外星服饰所吸引。

Seldon was relieved that he did not smile. He could be philosophical over being a figure of fun, but, surely, he could not be expected to enjoy it.

谢顿庆幸对方并未露出笑容。他对成为笑柄可以处之泰然，不过，当然，他绝不可能会喜欢那种情况。

Seldon watched the man rather unobtrusively, for he seemed to be engaged in some sort of internal debate. At the moment he looked as if he was about to speak, then seemed to think better of it, then seemed to wish to speak again. Seldon wondered what the outcome would be.

谢顿以不着痕迹的方式望着这名男子，因为对方内心似乎在进行一场激战。他看来已经准备开口，然后又好像改变了主意，接下来仿佛又回到原先的决定。谢顿很想知道最后的结果是什么。

He studied the man. He was tall, with broad shoulders and no sign of a paunch, darkish hair with a glint of blond, smooth-shaven, a grave expression, an air of strength though there were no bulging muscles, a face that was a touch rugged……pleasant, but with nothing "pretty" about it.

他仔细打量这名男子。此人个子很高，肩膀宽阔，看不出有任何肚腩，头发是泛着金光的浅黑色，胡子刮得干净，一脸严肃的表情，看来孔武有力，不过并没有盘虬的肌肉，脸庞显得有几分棱角……十分顺眼，但绝对称不上“好看”。

By the time the man had lost the internal fight with himself (or won, perhaps) and leaned toward him, Seldon had decided he liked him.

等到这名男子内心交战失败了（或者也许是胜利了），将身子倾向谢顿的时候，谢顿认定自己对他已有好感。

The man said, "Pardon me, werent you at the Decennial Convention? Mathematics?"

那人开口道：“对不起，你是不是曾经出席十载会议？那场数学研讨会？”

"Yes, I was," said Seldon agreeably.

“是的，我在场。”谢顿欣然答道。

"Ah, I thought I saw you there. It was……excuse me……that moment of recognition that led me to sit here. If I am intruding on your privacy……"

“啊，我想我在会场见过你。就是因为……对不起……我刚才认出你来，所以才会坐到这里。如果我侵犯了你的隐私……”

"Not at all. Im just enjoying an idle moment."

“一点也没有，我正在享受片刻的悠闲时光。”

"Lets see how close I can get. Youre Professor Seldon."

“让我看看还记得多少，你是谢东教授。”

"Seldon. Hari Seldon. Quite close. And you?"

“谢顿，哈里·谢顿，不过相当接近了。你呢？”

"Chetter Hummin." The man seemed slightly embarrassed. "Rather a homespun name, Im afraid."

“契特·夫铭，”那人似乎有点尴尬，“只怕是个相当普通的名字。”

"Ive never come across any Chetters before," said Seldon. "Or Hummins. So that makes you somewhat unique, I should think. It might be viewed as being better than being mixed up with all the countless Haris there are. Or Seldons, for that matter."

“我从未碰见过叫契特的人，”谢顿说，“也从不认识姓夫铭的，所以我会认为你相当特别。也许可以这样说，这总比跟数不清的哈里，或是无数的谢顿纠缠不清好得多。”

Seldon moved his chair closer to Hummin, scraping it against the slightly elastic ceramoid tiles.

谢顿将他的椅子挪近夫铭，椅子在带点弹性的陶砖上摩擦出嘎嘎声。

"Talk about homespun," he said, "What about this Outworldish clothing Im wearing? It never occurred to me that I ought to get Trantorian garb."

“谈到普通，”他说，“我这身外星服装怎么样？我压根没想到该弄一套川陀衣饰。”

"You could buy some," said Hummin, eyeing Seldon with suppressed disapproval.

“你可以去买些。”夫铭一面说，一面以不敢苟同的目光打量谢顿。

"Ill be leaving tomorrow and, besides, I couldnt afford it. Mathematicians deal with large numbers sometimes, but never in their income.……I presume youre a mathematician, Hummin."

“我明天就要离开此地，而且我也买不起。数学家有时会处理一些大数目，但绝不是他们的收入……夫铭，我猜你也是个数学家。”

"No. Zero talent there."

“不是，这方面我毫无天分。”

"Oh." Seldon was disappointed. "You said you saw me at the Decennial Convention."

“喔。”谢顿有些失望，“你刚才说曾在十载会议上见到我。”

"I was there as an onlooker. Im a journalist." He waved his teleprints, seemed suddenly aware that he was holding them and shoved them into his jacket pouch. "I supply the material for the news holocasts." Then, thoughtfully, "Actually, Im rather tired of it."

“我在那里只是旁观，我是个新闻记者。”他挥了挥电讯报表，似乎这才发觉它还在手中，立刻将它塞进外衣口袋。“我为全息新闻供应消息。”然后，他以意味深长的语气说，“其实，我已经相当厌烦。”

"The job?"

“你的工作？”

Hummin nodded. "Im sick of gathering together all the nonsense from every world. I hate the downward spiral."

夫铭点了点头。“从各个世界收集各种毫无意义的消息，这种差事令我倒胃口。我恨透了每况愈下的世风。”

He glanced speculatively at Seldon. "Sometimes something interesting turns up, though. Ive heard you were seen in the company of an Imperial Guard and making for the Palace gate. You werent by any chance seen by the Emperor, were you?"

他若有所思地瞥了谢顿一眼。“不过，有时还是会发生些有趣的事。我听说有人看到你和一名禁卫军在一起，朝皇宫大门的方向去。你该不会是蒙大帝召见吧？”

The smile vanished from Seldons face. He said slowly, "If I was, it would scarcely be something I could talk about for publication."

谢顿脸上的笑容顿时消失无踪，他缓缓说道：“即使真有这回事，也不是我能对新闻界发表的。”

"No, no, not for publication. If you don't know this, Seldon, let me be the first to tell you……The first rule of the news game is that nothing is ever said about the Emperor or his personal entourage except what is officially given out. Its a mistake, of course, because rumors fly that are much worse than the truth, but thats the way it is."

“不，不，不是为了发表。谢顿，如果你不知道这种事，让我第一个告诉你……跑新闻的第一条游戏规则，就是有关皇帝或他身边亲信的消息，除了官方发布的，其他一律不能报道。当然，这样是不对的，因为谣言满天飞远比公布真相要糟得多，可是规则就是这样。”

"But if you cant report it, friend, why do you ask?"

“但如果不能报道，朋友，你为什么还要问呢？”

"Private curiosity. Believe me, in my job I know a great deal more than ever gets on the air.……Let me guess. I didn't follow your paper, but I gathered that you were talking about the possibility of predicting the future."

“私下的好奇心。相信我，干我这一行的，知道的消息比公诸于世的多得多……让我猜猜看：我没有听懂你的论文内容，但我推测你是在谈论预测未来的可能性。”

Seldon shook his head and muttered, "It was a mistake."

谢顿摇了摇头，咕哝道：“那是个错误。”

"Pardon me?"

“你说什么？”

"Nothing."

“没什么。”

"Well, prediction……accurate prediction……would interest the Emperor, or any man in government, so Im guessing that Cleon, First of that Name, asked you about it and wouldnt you please give him a few predictions."

“嗯，预测……正确的预测……会令大帝或任何一名政府官员感兴趣。所以我猜克里昂一世曾向你问及这档事，还有你愿不愿意帮他做些预测。”

Seldon said stiffly, "I don't intend to discuss the matter."

谢顿以僵硬的语调说：“我不想谈这件事。”

Hummin shrugged slightly. "Eto Demerzel was there, I suppose."

夫铭轻轻耸了耸肩。“我想，伊图·丹莫刺尔也在场吧。”

"Who?"

“谁？”

"Youve never heard of Eto Demerzel?"

“你从未听说过伊图·丹莫刺尔？”

"Never."

“从来没有。”

"Cleons alter ego……Cleons brain……Cleons evil spirit. Hes been called all those things……if we confine ourselves to the nonvituperative. He must have been there."

“克里昂的另一个自我、克里昂的大脑、克里昂的邪灵……这些都是人们对他的称呼，还不包括那些辱骂性的绰号。他当时一定在场。”

Seldon looked confused and Hummin said, "Well, you may not have seen him, but he was there. And if he thinks you can predict the future……"

谢顿露出困惑的表情。夫铭继续说：“嗯，你也许没看到他，可是他绝对在场。假如他认为你能预测未来……”

"I cant predict the future," said Seldon, shaking his head vigorously. "If you listened to my paper, youll know that I only spoke of a theoretical possibility."

“我不能预测未来。”谢顿一面说，一面使劲摇着头，“如果你听过我发表论文，就会知道我只是在谈论理论上的可能性。”

"Just the same, if he thinks you can predict the future, he will not let you go."

“没什么不同，假如他认定你能预测未来，他就不会让你走。”

"He must have. Here I am."

“他还是让我走了，现在我才能在这里。”

"That means nothing. He knows where you are and hell continue to know. And when he wants you, hell get you, wherever you are. And if he decides youre useful, hell squeeze the use out of you. And if he decides youre dangerous, hell squeeze the life out of you."

“这点毫无意义。他知道你在哪里，今后会继续掌握你的行踪。当他想要你的时候，不论你在天涯海角，他都能找到你。要是他认为你有用，必定会把你的用处榨干；要是他认为你有威胁性，则会把你的命榨出来。”

Seldon stared. "What are you trying to do. Frighten me?"

谢顿瞪着对方。“你想要干什么，吓唬我？”

"Im trying to warn you."

“我是想提醒你当心。”

"I don't believe what youre saying."

“我不相信你说的这番话。”

"Dont you? A while ago you said something was a mistake. Were you thinking that presenting the paper was a mistake and that it was getting you into the kind of trouble you don't want to be in?"

“不相信？刚刚你还提到某件事是个错误。你是不是认为发表那篇论文是个错误，因为它给你带来一种避之唯恐不及的麻烦？”

Seldon bit his lower lip uneasily. That was a guess that came entirely too close to the truth……and it was at this moment that Seldon felt the presence of intruders.

谢顿不安地咬着下唇。这个猜测与实情简直太过吻合……就在这个时候，谢顿突然发觉有外人出现。

They did not cast a shadow, for the light was too soft and widespread. It was simply a movement that caught the corner of his eye……and then it stopped.

由于光线过度柔和与分散，对方并未投射出任何阴影。只是他的眼角捕捉到一个动作……然后动作便停下来。